九方智投控股（09636）：2025业绩预告及行政监管点评：合同负债创历史新高，客户留存持续向好

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6][10]. Core Insights - The company has released a performance forecast indicating a significant increase in net profit and a record high in contract liabilities, laying a solid foundation for 2026 performance. The retention of existing customers remains strong, and market trading continues to be active, leading to an optimistic outlook for future performance [2][10]. - The company reported a revenue of 3.43 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.74%. The adjusted net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is 901 million, 1.377 billion, and 1.574 billion RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 231%, 53%, and 14% respectively [10][11]. - The company has a total order amount of 3.955 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, and contract liabilities of 1.53 billion RMB, which is the highest in history. Approximately 80% of contract liabilities are expected to be recognized as revenue in the following year, indicating a strong basis for 2026 performance [10][11]. Financial Summary - Total revenue is projected to grow from 2.306 billion RMB in 2024 to 4.705 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 17%, 49%, 21%, and 13% respectively [4][11]. - Net profit is expected to increase from 272 million RMB in 2024 to 1.574 billion RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 43%, 231%, 53%, and 14% respectively [4][11]. - The company maintains a target price of 89 HKD, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 27x for 2026 [10].