MPOB报告发布，油脂盘面震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The MPOB report was released, and the market for edible oils fluctuated. The overall report met market expectations [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 74 yuan or 0.82% compared to the previous day; the soybean oil 2605 contract closed at 8,098 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan or 0.20%; the rapeseed oil 2605 contract closed at 9,096 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan or 0.45% [1] - Spot: In Guangdong, the spot price of palm oil was 8,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 1.11%, with a spot basis of P05 - 60 yuan, a decrease of 26 yuan; in Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.12%, with a spot basis of Y05 + 292 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan; in Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.51%, with a spot basis of OI05 + 754 yuan, a decrease of 9 yuan [1] Market News Summary - Argentina: In January, the export volume of soybean oil decreased from 562,000 tons in December to 460,000 - 480,000 tons (502,000 tons in the same period last year), and the export volume of soybean meal decreased from 2.05 million tons to 1.95 - 2 million tons (2.22 million tons in the same period last year). The soybean processing volume decreased, and it will continue to decline in February. The export volume of sunflower oil tripled to 100,000 tons compared to the same period last year, the export volume of sunflower meal increased from 105,000 tons to 150,000 - 160,000 tons, and the export volume of sunflower seeds was close to 100,000 tons. It is expected to continue to grow in February. The sunflower seed processing usually increases seasonally from February to March and will reach its peak after the new processing facilities are put into operation in April. The national sunflower seed harvest is 25% complete, and the output is expected to reach a record of 6.2 - 6.6 million tons (5.5 million tons in 2025 and 4.5 million tons in 2024) [2] - France: The French Ministry of Agriculture slightly increased the sown area forecast for winter soft wheat and rapeseed in 2026. The sown area of winter soft wheat is expected to reach 4.59 million hectares, slightly higher than the initial forecast of 4.56 million hectares in December last year. The sown area of rapeseed is forecast to increase from 1.34 million hectares estimated in December last year to 1.37 million hectares, an 8% increase compared to 2025 and 11.6% higher than the five - year average [2] - Malaysia: In January, the export volume of palm oil was 1,484,267 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.44%; the inventory was 2,815,493 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.72%; the output was 1,577,454 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.78%; the import was 32,316 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.93%. From February 1 - 10, according to AmSpec, the export volume of palm oil was 399,995 tons, a 14.25% decrease compared to the same period last month; according to ITS, it was 451,340 tons, a 10.5% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]