糖价内强外弱，郑棉延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral. [2][5][6] 2. Report's Core View - The sugar price shows a pattern of being stronger domestically and weaker internationally, while Zhengzhou cotton continues to fluctuate. The pulp price is expected to be in a low - level consolidation range. [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,655 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,713 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,988 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton. In 2026, the national cotton intended planting area is expected to decrease by 827,000 mu (1.7% year - on - year), and the total production is expected to decrease by 452,000 tons (5.8% year - on - year). [1] - Market Analysis: The international cotton supply - demand situation in the 25/26 season is generally loose, with slow US cotton export signing progress and weak terminal demand. ICE US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation in the short term. Domestically, the cotton output in the 25/26 season increased significantly, but the increase in commercial inventory was much less than the output increase. Supported by the expected reduction in area, traders' willingness to hold goods is strong, and spot transactions have pushed up the basis. Textile enterprises stocked up actively before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders were insufficient, and the industrial chain inventory was at a five - year high. In the medium - to - long term, the expansion of downstream spindle production capacity will increase cotton consumption, and the domestic supply - demand is expected to be in a relatively balanced state, but there may be a tightening of inventory at the end of the year. [2] - Strategy: Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short term, the market has partially factored in the expected decline in Xinjiang's planting area in the 26/27 season. Affected by the high internal - external price difference, imported yarn will put pressure on the domestic market, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate within a range. [2] Sugar - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,278 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,330 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,175 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In the first week of February, Brazil exported 762,400 tons of sugar and molasses, a 34.28% increase from the same period last year. [3] - Market Analysis: Zhengzhou sugar futures showed a strong - side fluctuation. The global sugar market in the 25/26 season has turned into a surplus pattern, and the raw sugar futures price is in a low - level weak consolidation. In the long term, there are potential positive factors for the supply side. In Zhengzhou sugar market, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in Guangxi in January were still behind the same period last year, but the single - month sugar production has increased year - on - year. The downstream demand is weak, but the expected tightening of import permits provides some support to the market. [4] - Strategy: Adopt a neutral strategy. In the short - to - medium term, view the sugar price as a process of bottom - building through fluctuations. Pay attention to changes in macro - policies and domestic import sugar control policies. [5] Pulp - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,202 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton or 0.04% from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of Russian pine pulp was 4,885 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mainly consolidating, with light market trading. [5] - Market Analysis: The pulp futures price fluctuated in a narrow range. In terms of supply, the overseas new production capacity has been limited in the past two years, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. In terms of demand, a large amount of finished paper production capacity was put into operation in 2025, but the terminal effective demand was insufficient, the paper mills' operating rate was not high, and the overall output of finished paper did not increase significantly. The downstream paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious, and the domestic port inventory remained at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and the overall demand for pulp is expected to improve compared with last year. [6] - Strategy: Adopt a neutral strategy. The overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, the port inventory remains high, and the short - term pulp price may continue to consolidate at a low level. [6]