液氯价格进一步下降，烧碱现货小幅调涨

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market remains weak, but the recent "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot, and the expectation of mercury - free transformation in the future raises the long - term cost expectation. The price of caustic soda is expected to fluctuate in the near term, and the market sentiment is expected to warm up after the Spring Festival [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4971 yuan/ton (-21), the East China basis is -231 yuan/ton (-19), and the South China basis is -141 yuan/ton (-39) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4740 yuan/ton (-40), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (-60) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 735 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2930 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is 52 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production is -659 yuan/ton (+86), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production is 103 yuan/ton (+82), and the PVC export profit is 11.1 US dollars/ton (+2.3) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory is 28.8 tons (-0.2), the social PVC inventory is 59.3 tons (+0.8), the calcium carbide - based PVC operation rate is 80.37% (+0.39%), the ethylene - based PVC operation rate is 73.25% (+2.64%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 78.21% (+1.08%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 107.1 tons (+11.1) [1] Market Analysis - The export tax rebate for PVC was cancelled on April 1st, and the "rush to export" led to strong export orders, which have recently declined. The upstream inventory pressure is not large. The overall supply - demand pattern of the PVC market is weak. The supply is abundant, and the downstream operation rate is expected to further decline. The social inventory is slightly increasing and at a high level year - on - year. The cost of upstream chlor - alkali production has been slightly repaired, but it is still at a low level year - on - year. The PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and the hedging pressure on the futures market still exists. However, the "rush to export" sentiment supports the spot, and the mercury - free transformation expectation raises the long - term cost expectation [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuation - Inter - period: Go long on the V05 - 09 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5] Caustic Soda Market News and Important Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 1963 yuan/ton (+26), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is -126 yuan/ton (-26) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 588 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1000 yuan/ton (-10) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 821 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 139.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -562.21 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 740.29 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 47.14 tons (-4.89), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.76 tons (+0.05), and the caustic soda operation rate is 87.80% (+0.10%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 84.06% (-0.71%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 27.91% (-22.74%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 88.43% (+0.00%) [2] Market Analysis - Before the festival, the downstream of liquid chlorine reduced production, the price of liquid chlorine further decreased, the comprehensive cost support of chlor - alkali became stronger, and enterprises were more willing to support the price of caustic soda, resulting in a slight increase in some spot prices of caustic soda. Although the current operation rate of caustic soda enterprises is high, the decrease in comprehensive chlor - alkali profit increases the expectation of caustic soda maintenance. Short - sellers reduced their positions, and the futures market rebounded. The low - price spot drove some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing sentiment, and the inventory of caustic soda in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased. However, the current demand side of caustic soda has a general receiving sentiment, the alumina plant has partial maintenance, the operation rate has slightly decreased, the unloading efficiency is average, and the long - term demand expectation for caustic soda has decreased. The commissioning progress of alumina in Guangxi has been postponed, and the market has insufficient motivation to purchase caustic soda. The pre - festival operation rate of non - alumina industries has decreased, and there has been some pre - Spring Festival stocking and purchasing at low prices, but subsequent purchasing behavior has weakened. Export orders have slightly improved. The current caustic soda warehouse receipts have a certain suppression on the futures market [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Fluctuation - Inter - period: Go long on the SH04 - 05 spread when it is low - Inter - variety: None [5]