巴西产量上调，豆粕延续震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [4][7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure from Brazilian soybeans will suppress the prices of US soybeans and domestic soybean meal. With sufficient domestic supply, the soybean meal price will maintain a volatile trend, and future focus should be on US soybean purchases and the Brazilian harvest [3] - Due to the low import volume of corn in the previous season, the channel inventory has been significantly depleted. Although there was a bumper harvest of corn in Northeast China this season, affected by rain disasters in North China and the uncertainty of substitute grain auctions, the corn supply this season is not expected to be abundant. The corn price is predicted to fluctuate, and future attention should be paid to the spot purchase and sales situation, import situation, and grain auction situation [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2734 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton or 0.18% from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2244 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton or 0.27% from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the spot price of soybean meal was 3130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the spot basis was M05 + 396, down 15 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3020 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was M05 + 286, down 5 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 3000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was M05 + 266, down 5 from the previous day. In Fujian, the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2400 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was RM05 + 156, down 6 from the previous day [1] 3.1.2 Recent Market Information - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers had completed 16% of the 2025/26 soybean harvest area, up 6 percentage points from the previous week, slightly higher than the 15% progress of the same period last year. In the first week of February, Brazil exported 118.4 million tons of soybeans, with a daily average export volume of 23.7 million tons, a 26% decrease compared to the daily average export volume of the entire month of February last year [2] - As of the week ending February 5, 2026, the US soybean export inspection volume was 113.6 million tons, with a market expectation of 80 - 165 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 131.8 million tons [2] 3.1.3 Market Analysis - The current weather in Brazil is favorable, and local institutions expect the new - season soybean production to reach a record 181 million tons. The supply pressure of Brazilian soybeans will suppress the prices of US soybeans and domestic soybean meal. Currently, feed enterprises have basically completed their stocking, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased again, and the soybean inventory remains at a high level. The domestic supply is still sufficient, and the soybean meal price will maintain a volatile trend [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2286 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton or 0.93% from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2603 contract was 2547 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton or 0.35% from the previous day [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the spot price of corn was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was C03 + 54, down 21 from the previous day; in Jilin, the spot price of corn starch was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot basis was CS03 + 83, down 9 from the previous day [4] 3.2.2 Recent Market Information - In the first week of February, Brazil exported 55 million tons of corn, with a daily average export volume of 11 million tons, a 55% increase compared to the daily average export volume of the entire month of February last year [4] - As of the week ending February 5, 2026, the US corn export inspection volume was 130.8 million tons, with a market expectation of 90 - 120 million tons, and the previous week's revised volume was 114.7 million tons [4] 3.2.3 Market Analysis - The import volume of corn in the previous season was low, and the channel inventory has been significantly depleted. Although there was a bumper harvest of corn in Northeast China this season, affected by rain disasters in North China and the uncertainty of substitute grain auctions, the corn supply this season is not expected to be abundant. The corn price is predicted to fluctuate, and future attention should be paid to the spot purchase and sales situation, import situation, and grain auction situation [6]