养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20260211

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the domestic and international soybean oil market have no obvious changes. With positive expectations for the US biodiesel policy, the price of soybean oil is expected to rise easily and fall difficultly in the future. It is recommended to consider long - position operations after the price stabilizes [3]. - The supply of rapeseed oil is expected to turn loose, but the decline in the futures price may have certain support. It is advisable to wait and see before the Spring Festival [3]. - The MPOB January report for palm oil is generally bullish, and there is still support for supply and demand in the first quarter. After the festival, attention can be paid to the opportunity of going long on dips [3]. - The February USDA supply - demand report for soybeans is expected to be neutral. The price of domestic beans is expected to fluctuate at a low level before the festival. It is recommended to leave the short - position of soybean meal and wait and see, and temporarily leave the oil - meal ratio arbitrage before the festival [4]. - The supply of rapeseed meal is expected to turn loose, but the decline in the futures price is limited. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see before the festival [4]. - The price of corn futures is expected to fluctuate in a range in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see or pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the far - month contract on dips. For options, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [5]. - The price of soybean No.1 may run strongly in the short term, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position [6]. - The short - term pressure on the spot price of live pigs is relatively large, and the far - month contract has a premium. Conservative investors can hold long positions in the far - month contract, while aggressive investors can wait for the spot pressure to be released and then go long on the 2607 contract at a low price [6]. - The spot price of eggs has dropped significantly, and the futures premium has declined. Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can go long on the 04 contract below 3000 points [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Market Judgment - Oilseeds: Soybean No.1 05 contract is expected to be adjusted in a shock, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position; Soybean No.2 05 contract is expected to decline in a shock, and it is recommended to operate bearishly [10]. - Oils: Soybean oil 05 contract is expected to stabilize in a shock, and it is recommended to go long after stabilization; Rapeseed oil 05 contract is expected to run in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see; Palm oil 05 contract is expected to run in a shock, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips [10]. - Proteins: Soybean meal 05 contract is expected to decline in a shock, and it is recommended to go short with a light position; Rapeseed meal 05 contract is expected to run in a shock, and it is recommended to turn to waiting and seeing [10]. - Energy and By - products: Corn 03 contract and corn starch 03 contract are expected to be sorted out in a shock, and it is recommended to return to waiting and seeing [10]. - Livestock: Live pig 03 contract is expected to find the bottom in a shock, and it is recommended to try long positions with a light position; Egg 05 contract is expected to find the bottom in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. 3.1.2 Commodity Arbitrage - Inter - month Arbitrage: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, and the corn 3 - 5 contract is recommended to go short on rallies [11][12]. - Inter - commodity Arbitrage: Most varieties are recommended to wait and see, and the 05 rapeseed oil - soybean oil and 05 rapeseed oil - palm oil are recommended to close positions [12]. 3.1.3 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various varieties, including oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - Daily Data: It includes the import cost data of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil, such as the arrival - at - port premium, CBOT futures prices, CNF prices, and import - arrival - at - port duty - paid prices [15][16]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory changes and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the inventory of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseeds, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, and peanuts [17][18]. 3.2.2 Feed - Daily Data: It provides the import cost data of corn from different countries and months, including CNF prices and arrival - at - port duty - paid costs [18]. - Weekly Data: It shows the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and sales progress data of corn and corn starch [19]. 3.2.3 Livestock - It provides the daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, price changes, and key market data such as breeding costs, profits, and slaughter data [19][20][21][23]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock End: It includes the closing prices of live pig and egg futures contracts, spot prices, and related price data such as piglets, chicken seedlings, and culled chickens [25][27][28][29][30][31]. - Oils and Oilseeds: It includes the production, export, inventory, and trading data of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts, as well as the basis and spread data [34][36][38][40][44][47][48]. - Feed End: It includes the price, basis, inventory, consumption, and processing profit data of corn, corn starch, rapeseed, and soybean meal [50][53][55][63][65][72][74][76][78][82][86]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It provides the option - related data such as the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, historical volatility, and option trading volume and open interest of various varieties [89][90][91][92]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils It shows the warehouse receipt data of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs [97][99][100][102].