有色商品日报-20260211

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated weakly, with a continued loss in the spot import of refined copper in China. The Fed's policy will remain prudent, and the upcoming US non - farm payrolls data may be lower than expected. Downstream procurement has slowed, and social inventories are accumulating. The copper price is still mainly in a fluctuating and slightly bullish market, and it is recommended to maintain the idea of buying on dips, but with a light position during the Spring Festival [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Due to the rise in overseas alumina prices and domestic electrolytic aluminum plants' early winter - stockpiling of raw materials, the alumina futures price rose against the trend, but the upward trend is difficult to sustain. With the approach of the Spring Festival, demand is weak, and social inventories are accelerating their accumulation [1]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 0.8% to $17,550 per ton, and SHFE nickel rose 1.88% to 136,500 yuan per ton. The approved nickel ore production quota has shrunk significantly. Although short - term demand has weakened, cost support is still strong. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of lightly testing long positions near the cost line, but also to the impact of market sentiment resonance [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Research Views - Copper: The Fed's policy is prudent, and the non - farm payrolls data may be lower than expected. Downstream demand is weak, and social inventories are increasing. The copper price is in a fluctuating and slightly bullish market, and it is recommended to buy on dips with a light position during the festival [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy prices fluctuated weakly. The alumina futures price rose due to external factors, but the uptrend is unsustainable. Demand is weak, and social inventories are piling up [1]. - Nickel: Nickel prices rose overnight. The production quota has decreased, and cost support is strong. Although short - term demand has weakened, there may be opportunities to test long positions near the cost line, while also considering market sentiment [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: On February 10, 2026, the price of flat - water copper was 101,715 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan from the previous day. The LME inventory remained unchanged, while the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 8,811 tons. The social inventory remained at 40.9 million tons [5]. - Lead: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,660 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 4,687 tons, and the inventory increased by 17,240 tons [5]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi quotation was 23,290 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 34,000 tons to 777,000 tons, while the alumina inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 159,000 tons [6]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 143,900 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 318 tons, and the social inventory increased by 2,784 tons [6]. - Zinc: The main contract settlement price was 24,445 yuan/ton, down 0.6%. The social inventory increased by 9,800 tons to 128,100 tons [8]. - Tin: The main contract settlement price was 382,200 yuan/ton, up 3.4%. The SHFE inventory decreased by 1,718 tons [8]. 3. Chart Analysis - 3.1 Spot Premium: There are charts showing the spot premiums of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [10][13]. - 3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: There are charts showing the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2021 - 2026 [16][21][23]. - 3.3 LME Inventory: There are charts showing the LME inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24][26][28]. - 3.4 SHFE Inventory: There are charts showing the SHFE inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [30][32][34]. - 3.5 Social Inventory: There are charts showing the social inventories of copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [36][38][40]. - 3.6 Smelting Profit: There are charts showing the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [43][45][47]. 4. Introduction of the Non - ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, and a gold intermediate investment analyst. He has over a decade of commodity research experience and his team has won the Best Metal Industry Futures Research Team Award for four consecutive terms [50]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [50]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [51].