市场供需两端格局明显，铜价维持震荡格局

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Neutral [9] - Arbitrage: Suspended [9] - Options: Sell put options [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market has distinct supply - demand patterns, and copper prices maintain a volatile pattern. With the approaching Spring Festival, downstream demand is continuously withdrawing, and the price of precious metals is still highly volatile. The price of copper is expected to range between 97,800 yuan/ton and 106,600 yuan/ton. It is not recommended to hold heavy positions during the Spring Festival holiday [2][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On February 10, 2026, the Shanghai copper main contract opened at 101,740 yuan/ton and closed at 101,560 yuan/ton, a - 0.27% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 101,660 yuan/ton and closed at 101,730 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease from the afternoon close [2]. Spot Situation - The spot quotation range of Shanghai copper was a discount of 40 to a premium of 50 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 5 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous day. The main contract 2602 rose in the morning and then fell, closing at 101,210 yuan/ton. Market buying and selling sentiment both declined. The sales sentiment index in Shanghai was 2.65, and the purchase index was 2.55. Sellers' quotes were divided. High - quality brands had firm quotes due to tight supply, while discounts for flat - water copper and non - registered brands widened. Import remained at a loss, and the inter - month spread was between 350 - 450 yuan/ton. In the future, as imported goods arrive at the port and downstream stocking ends, the market will show a situation of weak supply and demand. Sellers may hold back some goods for delivery, and available resources will be limited, while buyers' willingness to take delivery is low. It is expected that the spot premium will continue to be under pressure [3]. Important Information Summary - Geopolitical aspect: US President Trump said he was considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The US and Iran restarted negotiations in Oman last Friday, and Trump expected the second round of talks to be held next week [4]. - Federal Reserve aspect: Fed officials Logan and Harker both indicated that the Fed's policy stance is approaching a neutral level, and if inflation falls and the labor market remains stable in the next few months, there is no need for further interest rate cuts, and the interest rate policy may remain unchanged for a long time. The market is waiting for the guidance of non - farm payroll data [4]. - Mining end: Congo (Kinshasa) requires all metal mining enterprises to prove that at least 5% of the company's shares are held by Congolese employees, and enterprises need to submit compliance certificates by July 31, 2026. The British Columbia provincial government is launching a series of measures to repair the mining permit system, with a special fund of 3 million Canadian dollars. The province has included several mining projects in the priority approval list and needs to complete three key tasks in 2026 to consolidate industry confidence [5]. - Smelting and import: The US has quietly built up the largest copper inventory in decades. Traders are rushing to ship copper to the US due to concerns about possible import tariffs on refined copper. As of February 6, Comex copper inventory was about 534,405 tons, more than five times higher than a year ago. The total US copper reserve is estimated to be about 1 million tons, which can meet about 7 months of demand [5]. - Consumption: Jinchuan Tonggui Wire and Cable Company successfully produced copper rods for ultra - fine enameled wires with a diameter of 0.05 mm, which marks an improvement in product quality and technical level. Fujian Province has identified 1570 key projects in 2026, with a total investment of 4.01 trillion yuan and an annual planned investment of 722.6 billion yuan, including 11 copper - related projects [6][7]. - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts changed by 1025.00 tons to 189,100 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts changed by 8811 tons to 165,939 tons. On February 10, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 331,300 tons, a change of - 45,000 tons from the previous week [8].