贵金属日报：地缘风险仍在，市场等待非农数据指引-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [7] - Silver: Neutral [7] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio on rallies [8] - Options: On hold [8] 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks remain, and the market is waiting for non-farm payroll data. The potential military action between the US and Iran and the Fed's policy stance are influencing the market. The current market sentiment may lead to an increase in the demand for gold investment, and the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain volatile [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Geopolitical aspect: US President Trump is considering sending another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East in case the negotiation with Iran fails. The second round of US-Iran talks is expected to be held next week [1]. - Fed aspect: Fed officials Logan and Harker believe that the Fed's policy stance is close to the neutral level, and if inflation falls and the labor market remains stable in the next few months, there is no need for further interest rate cuts, and the interest rate policy may remain unchanged for a long time [1]. Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On February 10, 2026, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 1,122.92 yuan/gram, closed at 1,121.22 yuan/gram, down 0.42% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 1,119.74 yuan/gram, down 0.13% from the afternoon session [2]. - The Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 20,500.00 yuan/kg, closed at 20,284.00 yuan/kg, down 2.82% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 611,557 lots, and the open interest was 216,295 lots. The night session closed at 20,242 yuan/kg, down 0.21% from the afternoon session [2]. US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On February 10, 2026, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.143%, unchanged from the previous trading day. The 10-year - 2-year spread was 0.695, also unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. SHFE Gold and Silver Open Interest and Trading Volume Changes - On the Au2604 contract, the long position increased by 1,706 lots, and the short position decreased by 1,001 lots compared to the previous day. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 291,869 lots, down 34.80% from the previous trading day [3]. - On the Ag2604 contract, the long position decreased by 4,408 lots, and the short position decreased by 3,637 lots. The total trading volume of the silver contract was 1,266,314 lots, down 35.76% from the previous trading day [3]. Precious Metal ETF Holdings Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,079.66 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 16,191 tons, also unchanged from the previous trading day [4]. Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On February 10, 2026, the domestic gold premium was -7.03 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -35.31 yuan/kg. The ratio of the main contracts of gold and silver on the SHFE was about 55.28, up 2.47% from the previous trading day, and the overseas gold-silver ratio was 62.13, up 5.27% from the previous trading day [5]. Fundamentals - On February 10, 2026, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange's T + d market was 31,462 kg, down 33.84% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 288,342 kg, down 12.03% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 30 kg [6]. Strategy - Gold: Due to the incomplete clearing of market risk aversion, the demand for gold investment may increase slightly. It is expected that the gold price will be mainly volatile and strong in the near future, and the oscillation range of the Au2604 contract may be between 1,080 yuan/gram - 1,180 yuan/gram [7]. - Silver: The silver price is currently oscillating with gold, and due to the recovery of risk sentiment, the silver price is basically stable. It is expected that the silver price will also maintain an oscillating pattern, and the oscillation range of the Ag2604 contract may be between 20,000 yuan/kg - 21,500 yuan/kg [7][8]. - Arbitrage: Short the gold - silver ratio on rallies [8]. - Options: On hold [8]