格林大华期货早盘提示：瓶片-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical situation may fluctuate, causing crude oil prices to oscillate. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased, while the demand side maintained just - in - time replenishment. Small and medium - sized terminal enterprises gradually stopped production and left the market, leading to weakening demand. It is expected that the price of bottle chips will fluctuate following the raw materials, with the main contract reference range of 6070 - 6300 yuan/ton. Near the holiday, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty - handed [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday night, the main price of bottle chips rose by 20 yuan to 6172 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips was 6260 yuan/ton (+15), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6285 yuan/ton (+10). In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 860 lots to 66,900 lots, and short positions decreased by 1525 lots to 69,000 lots [1] 3.2 Important Information - Supply, Cost, and Profit: This week, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 303,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3800 tons. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 65.4%, a week - on - week increase of 0.8%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5662 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 151 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 26 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22 yuan/ton [1] - Export: In December 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 588,700 tons, an increase of 55,700 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.44%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative export volume was 6.4545 million tons, an increase of 607,000 tons from the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 10.38% [1] - Production in January 2026: The output of China's polyester bottle chip industry in January 2026 was 1.3983 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.28%. The capacity utilization rate in January was 68.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 percentage points [1] - Oil Price: The market is waiting for the second - round negotiation between the US and Iran to be finalized, and the Russia - Ukraine peace talks are also continuing. International oil prices have fallen. The NYMEX crude oil futures 03 contract fell 0.40 dollars/barrel to 63.96 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.62%. The ICE Brent oil futures 04 contract fell 0.24 dollars/barrel to 68.80 dollars/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35%. The China INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose 6.5 to 472.5 yuan/barrel, and rose 1.0 to 473.5 yuan/barrel at night [1] 3.3 Market Logic - The Middle East geopolitical situation may fluctuate, causing crude oil to oscillate. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased, while the demand side maintained just - in - time replenishment. Small and medium - sized terminal enterprises gradually stopped production and left the market, leading to weakening demand. It is expected that the price of bottle chips will fluctuate following the raw materials, with the main contract reference range of 6070 - 6300 yuan/ton [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Near the holiday, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty - handed [1]