AI高景气外溢：寻找下一个存储

Core Insights - The report highlights the phenomenon of "AI-driven price spillover," indicating that demand for AI hardware is leading to price increases in various industries, with traditional capacities being squeezed and driving supply-demand turning points earlier than expected [1][6][7] - The report summarizes the basic rules of the "high prosperity spillover" market since September 2025, emphasizing that while the fundamental elasticity may not be as strong as the high prosperity itself, there can still be elasticities in spillover markets [1][22] - It identifies specific sectors in the A-share market that are experiencing AI price spillover, recommending attention to fiberglass and optical fiber due to their favorable valuations and visible price increases [1][26][31] Summary by Sections AI Price Spillover - AI hardware demand is experiencing high prosperity, leading to traditional industries facing supply constraints and price increases [1][6] - The spillover market can yield returns from two sources: performance improvements from supply being squeezed and valuation recovery from previously low historical levels [1][22] - The report notes that the success rate of such markets is not very high, suggesting the need for additional alpha logic, such as companies with strong pricing power or potential entry into high prosperity sectors [1][25] Industry Analysis - Fiberglass: Driven by AI computing demand, special fabrics are experiencing high prosperity, with traditional fiberglass showing a confirmed bottom in asset turnover and manageable downside risks [1][26][28] - Optical Fiber: The industry has confirmed a bottom in the operating cycle, with traditional capacity being squeezed and a clear upward option due to high-profit products entering the market [1][31][32] - Niche Storage: Benefiting from AI price spillover, with supply shortages driving price increases, although mid-term performance may be limited [1][11][37] - Wafer Foundry: The exit of overseas leaders from 8-inch plants is expected to benefit domestic foundries, with short-term price increases anticipated [1][37] - Power Semiconductors: AI-driven demand is strong, but the uncertainty in fundamental recovery may limit the potential for similar market performance as seen in lithium batteries [1][40] - CPU: The supply of CPUs is tight due to AI chip demand, but the corresponding A-share market shows limited fundamental realization [1][43]