国债期货日报：资金面宽松，国债期货大多收涨-20260211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. It is affected by the stock market, the broad - money signal released by the Politburo meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the increased uncertainty of global trade, which adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to remain proactive, with an emphasis on "increasing the total amount and optimizing the structure". The expenditure intensity is expected to increase, and the rhythm will continue to be advanced, providing support for stable growth [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a year - on - year increase of 0.80%; the monthly PPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.90% [9]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.47%; M2 year - on - year growth is 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 6.25%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.60% [10]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index is 96.86, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.01%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9106, with a month - on - month increase of 0.003 and a growth rate of 0.04%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.53, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 1.73%; DR007 is 1.56, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.23%; R007 is 1.56, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.95%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.34%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.34% [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Closing prices and price changes: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.48 yuan, 106.02 yuan, 108.49 yuan, and 112.68 yuan respectively. The price changes of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 0.01% respectively [3]. - Net basis spread: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.014 yuan, 0.004 yuan, 0.017 yuan, and - 0.069 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - Central bank operations: On February 10, 2026, the central bank conducted 311.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tendering [2]. - Repo rates: The main - term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.362%, 1.531%, 1.604%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread data, including inter - period spreads of treasury bond futures and spreads between spot and futures of different maturities, such as 4TS - T, 2TS - TF, 2TF - T, 3T - TL, and 2TS - 3TF + T [32][38][39]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [41][45][50]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract [51][54]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract [55][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract [62][63]. 4. Strategies - Single - side strategy: As the repo rate declines, the prices of treasury bond futures oscillate [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis spread [4]. - Hedging strategy: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].