市场成交仍明显偏淡，铅价反弹或难持续

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is cautiously bearish [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Before the Spring Festival, both supply and demand in the lead market decline. Logistics stops and enterprises go on holiday, resulting in light trading. Inventory is transferred to social warehouses, and it is expected that there will be a significant inventory build - up after the festival, with lead prices oscillating weakly [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On February 10, 2026, the LME lead spot premium was -$49.30 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,525 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by -25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price changed by 100 yuan/ton to 16,575 yuan/ton. The SMM Henan lead spot price changed by 150 yuan/ton to 16,550 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by 125 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries changed by -25 yuan/ton to 9,875 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 9,975 yuan/ton and 10,200 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On February 10, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 16,665 yuan/ton and closed at 16,665 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 58,100 lots, an increase of 8,455 lots compared with the previous trading day. The positions for the whole trading day were 42,295 lots, a decrease of 8,010 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 16,805 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,560 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 1,660 yuan/ton and closed at 16,705 yuan/ton, up 0.18% from the afternoon close of the previous day. The SMM1 lead price rose 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Near the Spring Festival, smelters only maintained a small amount of long - term order shipments and had cleared their scattered inventories, and market quotations gradually decreased. In Henan, holders offered at a discount of 200 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2603 contract for post - holiday delivery. In Hunan, although smelters' inventories were sold out and offered at a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead, some holders in the trading market sold at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. In Yunnan, holders offered at a discount of 225 yuan/ton to the SMM1 lead. Recently, the lead price rebounded slightly. As smelters gradually went on holiday near the Spring Festival, downstream consumption also declined, and overall market trading was light [2] Inventory - On February 10, 2026, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 50,000 tons, a change of 9,500 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 28, the LME lead inventory was 232,750 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared with the previous trading day [3] Strategy - A sell - hedging operation can be carried out when the price returns above 16,900 yuan/ton, but the position should not be too heavy near the Spring Festival [4]