EG主港延续累库，节前氛围偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for unilateral investment is neutral [3] 2. Core Views - In the futures and spot market, the closing price of the main EG contract was 3,733 yuan/ton (a change of -6 yuan/ton or -0.16% from the previous trading day), the spot price of EG in the East China market was 3,625 yuan/ton (a change of -10 yuan/ton or -0.28% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis of EG in East China was -110 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 0 yuan/ton) [1] - In terms of production profit, the production gross profit of ethylene-based EG was -$56/ton (a month-on-month increase of $1/ton), and the production gross profit of coal-based syngas EG was -939 yuan/ton (a month-on-month decrease of 1 yuan/ton) [1] - In terms of inventory, according to CCF data released every Monday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 935,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 38,000 tons); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, the inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 645,000 tons (a month-on-month increase of 28,000 tons). The total actual arrivals at the main ports in East China last week were 110,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 30,000 tons. From February 9th to 23rd, the planned total arrivals at the main ports in East China were 181,000 tons, and the arrivals at the secondary ports were 58,000 tons [1] - In terms of the overall fundamental supply-demand logic, on the domestic supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load is at a high level, and the inventory accumulation pressure is still high under the high supply from January to February and the weakening demand. However, Satellite plans to switch production in February, and attention should be paid to the relative changes in the valuations of various downstream ethylene products after the price increase. On the overseas supply side, with the maintenance of plants in Saudi Arabia and Taiwan, the import pressure will be alleviated around the end of February. The pressure from January to February is still high, and there will be a slight inventory reduction in March. On the demand side, the Spring Festival maintenance has been gradually implemented, the weaving load and polyester load have accelerated their decline, and the support from rigid demand has weakened [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China and the spot basis of ethylene glycol in East China [6][8] 3.2 Production Profit and Operating Rate - The report includes figures on the gross profit of ethylene-based ethylene glycol, the gross profit of coal-based syngas ethylene glycol, the gross profit of naphtha-integrated ethylene glycol, the gross profit of methanol-based ethylene glycol, the total load of ethylene glycol, and the load of syngas-based ethylene glycol [10][14][16] 3.3 International Price Difference - The report includes a figure on the international price difference of ethylene glycol: US FOB - China CFR [19] 3.4 Downstream Sales and Production and Operating Rate - The report includes figures on the sales of filament, the sales of staple fiber, the polyester load, the direct-spun filament load, the polyester staple fiber load, and the polyester bottle chip load [20][23][27] 3.5 Inventory Data - The report includes figures on the inventory of ethylene glycol in the ports of East China, the inventory of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang, the inventory of ethylene glycol in Ningbo Port, the inventory of ethylene glycol in Jiangyin + Changzhou Port, the inventory of ethylene glycol in Shanghai + Changshu Port, the inventory days of MEG raw materials in Chinese polyester factories, and the daily outbound volume of ethylene glycol in the ports of East China [30][33][39]