高盛闭门会-首席闪辉谈经济转型和数据干扰-人民币升值快于预期汪汪队卖出5000亿还有6万亿

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the Chinese economy, with expected GDP growth targets adjusted to a range of 4.5%-5% for 2026, reflecting a conservative approach to fiscal policy and economic expectations [1][7]. Core Insights - The Chinese economy is experiencing uneven growth, with exports and manufacturing growth exceeding 5%, while the real estate sector is significantly declining, indicating a structural economic transition towards technology innovation [1][3]. - Local government meetings have revealed a downward adjustment in growth targets for 2026, with a weighted average decrease from 5.3% to 5.1%, suggesting a cautious outlook across most provinces [5][6]. - The anticipated appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) is about 4% for 2026, which is higher than the market's implied rate of 2.5%, but the negative impacts on exports and inflation are expected to be limited [1][9][13]. Summary by Sections Economic Growth Expectations - The expected GDP growth target for 2026 is set between 4.5% and 5%, with an inflation target maintained at around 2% [7]. - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain at approximately 4% of GDP, with special government bond issuance expected to be consistent with the previous year [7]. Local Government Insights - A majority of provinces have lowered their growth targets, with 21 out of 31 provinces adjusting their goals downwards, indicating a collective preparation for a more cautious economic environment [5][6]. - Core provinces like Beijing and Shanghai have maintained their growth targets around 5%, while Guangdong has adjusted its target down to 4.5%-5% [5]. Currency and Inflation - The RMB is expected to appreciate by about 4% in 2026, which may lead to increased export prices and reduced import prices, potentially exacerbating deflationary pressures [11][13]. - CPI is projected to decrease to 0.3% year-on-year in January 2026, while PPI is expected to be -1.4%, indicating a need to monitor manufacturing cost-driven inflation [16]. Market Dynamics - The stock market has shown strong performance at the beginning of 2026, despite significant sell-offs by state-owned entities, with retail investor sentiment remaining high [17]. - There has been a strong inflow of capital from southbound investments, with net purchases reaching $16 billion, indicating robust interest in Hong Kong stocks [18]. Real Estate Market Outlook - The real estate market is expected to reach a bottom within at least 12 months, with current policy support deemed insufficient to stimulate demand effectively [29].