中国实体零售行业展望：弱复苏与深度调整并存

Investment Rating - The outlook for the Chinese retail industry is maintained at "negative improvement," indicating that the overall credit quality of the industry is expected to improve slightly over the next 12 to 18 months but has not yet reached a stable level [6]. Core Insights - The macro consumption is expected to recover slowly in 2026 under policy support, but insufficient consumer confidence will limit the recovery's strength. The department store sector continues to see revenue shrinkage, while supermarkets are focusing on supply chain and digital transformation amidst cost pressures [6][8]. - The retail industry is transitioning from extensive expansion to cost reduction and efficiency improvement, with a focus on business transformation. However, the long-term improvement of retail enterprises depends on the fundamental recovery of consumer confidence and the effectiveness of internal reforms [8][27]. - The retail market is entering a phase characterized by value-driven and experiential innovation, with a gradual normalization of consumption growth expected [27]. Summary by Sections Analysis Approach - The report analyzes the main factors affecting consumption to assess the market's prosperity in the retail sector, focusing on department stores and supermarkets. It suggests that the retail industry will seek long-term growth through weak recovery and deep transformation [9]. Industry Fundamentals - Since 2025, the retail industry's prosperity has been gradually recovering, although it remains weak. The contribution of consumption to GDP growth has increased, with retail sales reaching 50.1 trillion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [10][11]. - The retail market is experiencing structural differentiation, with a shift towards value-driven and experiential recovery. However, without a significant improvement in consumer confidence, retail sales growth is expected to remain slow [10][27]. Financial Performance - Retail enterprises are under pressure, with profitability generally declining. However, there is potential for recovery as companies implement transformation measures. The financial health of retail enterprises remains relatively stable due to sufficient cash reserves and declining leverage [8][27]. - The department store sector continues to face challenges, with revenue indices declining to the lowest levels since 2020. Despite some improvement in net profit indices, the overall performance remains weak [29][34]. Conclusion - The retail industry is expected to continue facing significant operational pressures, with companies needing to focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements. The long-term success of transformation efforts will depend on external environmental improvements and the effectiveness of implemented measures [34][36].