新西兰发运恢复，现货节前休市

Report Title - Log Weekly Report: New Zealand's Shipment Resumes, Spot Market Closed Before the Festival [1] Report Date - February 11, 2026 [1] Report Author - Jiang Zhou Xilin [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the log market is in a stage of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival, with prices remaining stable; the 2603 contract has basically given back its previous gains and may remain stable after the decline, and the performance of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" in the downstream will be further observed [4][9] - In the medium term, there is an expectation of short - term supply shortage after the festival, but the price trend is mainly dominated by the weak downstream demand. There is still room for the price to rise in the peak season after the festival, but the possibility of significant improvement compared with previous years is limited, and the price difference in the May contract is expected to widen [9] Key Points by Section 1. Log Industry Data - Supply - Spot Price: The price of 3.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port is 750 yuan/cubic meter, remaining stable compared with the previous period; the price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine logs at Taicang Port this week is 780 yuan/cubic meter, showing an increase [4] - Futures Price: As of the close on February 10, the main log contract 2603 closed at 773.5 yuan/cubic meter, showing a decline. The FOB price in New Zealand increased in February, raising the procurement cost of traders [4] - Arrival Volume: From February 9 - 15, 2026, the expected number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports is 8, an increase of 4 compared with last week, a week - on - week increase of 100%; the total arrival volume is about 264,000 cubic meters, an increase of 117,000 cubic meters compared with last week, a week - on - week increase of 80%. From February 2 - 8, 2026, the actual number of New Zealand log ships arriving at 13 Chinese ports was 4, a decrease of 3 compared with last week, a week - on - week decrease of 43%; the total arrival volume was about 147,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 71,000 cubic meters compared with last week, a week - on - week decrease of 33% [4] - Annual Import Volume: In December 2025, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs was about 1.7654 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20.82% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.45%. Overall, the total import volume of Chinese coniferous logs decreased year - on - year in 2025 [4] 2. Log Industry Data - Inventory - Inventory Quantity: As of February 10, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.38 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared with last week; the radiata pine inventory was 2.02 million cubic meters, a decrease of 40,000 cubic meters compared with last week; the North American wood inventory was 110,000 cubic meters, remaining the same as last week; the spruce/fir inventory was 100,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 10,000 cubic meters compared with last week [6] - Inventory Change Reason: The total inventory in Jiangsu has been continuously decreasing. The main reasons are the tight supply of some specifications of port spot (6 - meter medium A and small A), the low arrival volume of radiata pine logs at Taicang Port, and the stockpiling behavior of some processing plants before the Spring Festival, resulting in a structural shortage at Taicang Port since the end of December, especially the shortage of 6 - meter radiata pine logs. In addition, driven by the price difference of 60 yuan/cubic meter between Shandong and Jiangsu, at least 6 New Zealand log ships diverted to Jiangsu, resulting in a significant decrease in the arrival volume at Rizhao Port and a low inventory of 5.9 - meter medium A radiata pine logs [6] 3. Log Industry Data - Demand - Outbound Volume: From February 2 - 8, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 Chinese provinces was 51,500 cubic meters, a decrease of 16.53% compared with last week; among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 32,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 15.68% compared with last week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 12,900 cubic meters, a decrease of 18.87% compared with last week [6] - Demand Characteristics: The downstream demand is restricted by seasonal factors. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market is closed, and the log outbound volume decreases. Previously, the demand showed a north - south divide. In Jiangsu, the prices generally increased due to the tight inventory and pre - festival stockpiling demand, while in Shandong, the prices remained stable due to the large number of ships. Overall, the short - term price increase of radiata pine logs in Rizhao is mainly due to concerns about the reduction of New Zealand supply and the tight inventory of some specifications caused by ship diversion, with little actual change [6] 4. Log Industry Data - Recent News and Outlook - Import Structure: China's import of radiata pine shows a significant characteristic of resource centralization, with the proportion from New Zealand further increasing, and domestic demand is accelerating to focus on cost - effective timber species. However, the risk of over - dependence on a single source continues to accumulate [7] - Policy Impact: The anti - involution policy has a certain indirect boost in the off - season. Log downstream products and black futures varieties are also affected by the construction and manufacturing industries. The correlation between construction wood squares and coke is as high as 0.9. To some extent, the industrial structure adjustment of the construction industry is beneficial to boosting the sentiment of the log futures market [7] - Trade Agreement: The Sino - US Joint Statement in May will be beneficial to wood product exports, especially driving the demand for laminated wood and pulpwood. Downstream factories may replenish log stocks to make up for the export demand gap, thereby accelerating log destocking. However, the current downturn in the terminal market brings negative feedback, and it is expected that the log market will fluctuate at a low level in the medium and long term [7] - Customs Policy: The General Administration of Customs has decided to revoke the announcement on suspending the import of US logs. In the short term, the total volume of US logs that can arrive at the port and complete customs clearance will still be limited [7] - Natural Disaster: Landslides occurred in the Tauranga area of New Zealand's North Island, which is expected to affect local logging operations and delay the shipment of some ships. Although the shipment from New Zealand has returned to normal this week, the current arrival volume in China is still at a low level [7] - Exchange Policy: The Dalian Commodity Exchange has announced the suspension of the delivery business of log designated truck - board delivery sites at several companies [7] 5. Log Industry Data - Strategy and Suggestions - Historical Price Trend: From July to early September 2025, affected by the shortage of some specifications of timber, the increase in FOB quotes, and the stockpiling demand caused by the approaching delivery of the 2509 contract, the futures market had a significant rebound, and the spot price also strengthened synchronously. However, due to the cautious market expectation of the long - term real estate demand, the futures contracts showed a significant differentiation trend of near - strong and far - weak before and after entering the delivery month [9] - Short - term Outlook: Before the Spring Festival, the demand shows a north - south divide. In Jiangsu, the supply shortage situation will gradually ease as the diverted ships arrive at the port, and the price increase momentum may slow down; in Shandong, the demand is stable, and Shandong processing plants are expected to have a concentrated holiday in early February. The 2603 contract has basically given back its previous gains. In the short term, it may maintain a stable state after the decline, and the performance of the traditional peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" in the downstream will be further observed [9] - Medium - term Outlook: There is an expectation of short - term supply shortage after the festival, but the price trend is mainly dominated by the weak downstream demand. There is still room for the price to rise in the peak season after the festival, but the possibility of significant improvement compared with previous years is limited, and the price difference in the May contract is expected to widen [9]