Guoxin Securities·2026-02-11 06:56Investment Rating - The investment rating for Bilibili-W (09626.HK) is "Outperform the Market" [1][4][13] Core Views - 2026 is expected to be a significant year for the gaming industry and AI application advertising, which will likely lead to increased advertising revenue and profits for Bilibili [2][3][5] - Bilibili is anticipated to capture more advertising budgets from gaming and AI application advertisers, driving revenue and profit growth [3][5] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Bilibili are estimated at 30.2 billion, 32.6 billion, and 36.5 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][13] - Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 2.5 billion, 3.4 billion, and 4.6 billion for the same years [4][13] Industry Insights - The gaming industry is expected to see a rapid increase in game approvals, with a nearly 60% year-on-year growth in the number of game approvals in 2025, excluding casual games [3][5] - Bilibili's gaming advertising is projected to achieve over 30% year-on-year growth in 2026 due to increased competition among top game publishers [3][5] - AI application advertising budgets are expected to increase significantly in 2026, with Bilibili's user base overlapping with core AI application audiences [3][5] User Engagement and Advertising Metrics - Bilibili's Daily Active Users (DAU) is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 5% in 2026, with improvements in AI technology enhancing ad load from 6.7% to 7.1% and a projected 5% increase in ECPM [6][7] - The advertising revenue growth for native and brand ads is expected to be in single digits due to macroeconomic influences [7]