粤开宏观透视2026物价新局：基期轮换、体感差异与回升之路

Group 1: CPI and PPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival[14] - The January PPI was -1.4%, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.5 percentage points, driven by rising international prices of non-ferrous metals[14] - Food prices in January fell by 0.7%, contributing approximately 0.11 percentage points to the CPI decline, with pork and egg prices dropping by 13.7% and 10.6% respectively[14] Group 2: CPI Weight Adjustments - The CPI underwent a five-year base period rotation starting January 2026, reflecting changes in consumer spending patterns[9] - The weight of "Food, Tobacco, and Alcohol" was adjusted to 29.5%, while "Clothing" was set at 5.4% and "Housing" at 22.1%[10] - The average impact of the base period rotation on the CPI year-on-year index is estimated to be around 0.06 percentage points[10] Group 3: Economic Implications - The GDP deflator has shown negative year-on-year growth for 11 consecutive quarters, indicating persistent deflationary pressures[21] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery as key monetary policy considerations[21] - Current macroeconomic policies are aimed at boosting domestic demand and facilitating price recovery through fiscal and monetary measures[23]