2026年1月通胀数据点评：开年通胀：回升的绿芽

Inflation Data Overview - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while the core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.8% year-on-year[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%[4] Seasonal Effects and Consumer Demand - The January CPI year-on-year drop to 0.2% was influenced by the late timing of the Spring Festival, which typically weakens food price increases[4] - Historical data suggests that seasonal disturbances like this are often corrected in February, indicating potential recovery in CPI[5] Core CPI and Consumer Recovery - The core CPI's month-on-month increase of 0.3% marks a six-month high, reflecting improving consumer demand supported by effective consumption policies[4] - Price increases in household goods and services, such as travel and entertainment, indicate a robust recovery in service consumption[4] PPI Trends and Influences - The PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed to -1.4%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, both reaching their highest values since October 2023[4] - Factors contributing to PPI recovery include the "anti-involution" policy and international commodity price increases[4] Risks and Future Outlook - Potential risks include policy measures falling short of expectations, unexpected changes in the domestic economy, and fluctuations in exports[4]