生猪期货日报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The LH2605 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the current market is in a pattern of "high inventory, high average weight, weak consumption, and low profit" [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract LH2605 of live hog futures was 11,565 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton (-0.69%) from the previous trading day. The daily high was 11,605 yuan/ton, the low was 11,415 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 11,525 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was 70,539 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - On February 9, 2026, the national average price of live hogs was 12.34 yuan/kg, slightly rebounding from 12.05 yuan/kg on February 6, but still down 8.5% from 13.43 yuan/kg on January 29. The prices in major producing areas were: Hunan 12.34 yuan/kg, Hubei 12.45 yuan/kg, Jilin 12.48 yuan/kg, and Henan 12.30 yuan/kg. The price difference between North China and East China remained in the range of 50 - 80 yuan/ton. The average wholesale price of pork was 18.34 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day, and terminal consumption did not show obvious recovery [4]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - Slow progress of capacity reduction: As of the end of December 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 39.61 million heads, higher than the normal reserve of 39 million heads, at the upper limit of the green regulation range (101.6%), and the capacity did not shrink significantly, so the medium - and long - term supply pressure was not relieved [6]. - The average slaughter weight dropped from a high level: On February 6, the average slaughter weight of sample enterprises was 123.26 kg, slightly down from the January high of 124 kg, but still at a historical high year - on - year, indicating that the concentrated release of pre - holiday backlogged pig sources did not fully digest the supply pressure [6]. - Pre - holiday consumption did not meet expectations: As the Spring Festival approached, although the terminal slaughter volume increased, pork consumption was weak, the frozen product inventory was not significantly reduced, and the market lacked confidence in post - holiday demand [6]. 3.4 Market Outlook - Upward drivers: If the resumption of slaughter after the festival accelerates, the frozen product inventory is digested, and the reluctance to sell of the breeding end increases, it may drive the price to rebound slightly [7]. - Downward pressure: There will be another wave of concentrated slaughter in mid - to late February, the discount of far - month contracts will widen, and terminal consumption will remain weak [7].