主力合约增仓下行，盘后MSK开舱3月环比持平于1900美元／FEU

Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook is for the market to be volatile [3] Core Viewpoints - The spot market is still in a price - cut cycle, and the market has some doubts about the effect of the price increase letter in the off - season of March. New contracts EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 were listed today. The main contract EC2604 opened lower, with its decline widening at noon and falling more than 5% during the session. The trading volume rebounded to some extent. As of the close, the 04 contract increased its positions and closed at 1179 points, down 4.77%, and the current open interest rose to 34,000 lots [1] - The 05 and 07 contracts are stronger due to the peak - season attribute, while the 09 off - season contract shows differentiation. The main contract trades based on the pessimistic logic of the price - holding effect in March and returns to the 1170 - 1200 point range with amplified fluctuations. In the subsequent fundamentals, MSK opened the cabin at 1900 US dollars/FEU at the beginning of March. Attention should be paid to whether photovoltaic goods can drive the cargo volume to rebound in advance through short - term export rush pulses. After the festival, attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer and contract replacement brought by newly listed contracts [2] - The 05 contract closed at 1273 points on the first day of listing, with a premium of 94 points over the 04 contract and a discount of 226 points to the 06 contract. Considering the impact of US tariff increases on global trade in May 2025 and the possible subsequent position transfer and contract replacement, the reverse arbitrage logic of the 04 - 05 contracts can be considered [2] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - The main contract EC2604 opened lower, and its decline widened at noon, falling more than 5% during the session. The trading volume rebounded, and it closed at 1179 points, down 4.77%, with the current open interest rising to 34,000 lots. Some contracts fluctuated greatly, with the EC2607 contract rising more than 12% to close at 1731 points (the contract with the highest valuation on the market), and the EC2609 contract falling 22.99% to close at 1239.5 points [1] Spot Market Freight Rates - According to Jiyu Technology, the freight rate of MSK in the first week of March remained flat at 1900/2000 US dollars. The AE1 Shanghai - Rotterdam freight rate of NSK on March 6 was 1200/1900/2000 US dollars/TEU/FEU, remaining flat compared with February 26. The HPL - SPOT freight rate in February was 1835 US dollars/FEU, and in March it was at a high of 2935 US dollars/FEU. The low - price of 00CL in February was 2330 US dollars/FEU; CMA maintained at 2293 US dollars/FEU in February and 3393 US dollars/FEU in March. ONE maintained at 2035 US dollars/FEU in February and 2535 US dollars/FEU at the beginning of March; MSC maintained at 2140 US dollars/FEU in February [1] Geopolitical Situation - According to CCTV News, the US advised US merchant ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters. On February 9 local time, the US issued the latest guidelines to merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, advising US - flagged merchant ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters as much as possible and verbally refuse when requested to be boarded by the Iranian military [1] Macroeconomic Situation - According to Jinshi Data, the Sentix investor confidence index in the Eurozone in February was 4.2, expected to be 0, and the previous value was - 1.8. Germany rebounded unexpectedly, with its index rising from - 16.4 last month to - 6.9, reaching the highest level since July 2025 [2] Trading Logic - New contracts EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 were added today. The 05 and 07 contracts are stronger due to the peak - season attribute, while the 09 off - season contract shows differentiation. The main contract trades based on the pessimistic logic of the price - holding effect in March and returns to the 1170 - 1200 point range with amplified fluctuations. Attention should be paid to whether photovoltaic goods can drive the cargo volume to rebound in advance and the risk of position transfer and contract replacement [2] Contract Analysis - The 05 contract closed at 1273 points on the first day of listing, with a premium of 94 points over the 04 contract and a discount of 226 points to the 06 contract. Considering the impact of US tariff increases on global trade in May 2025 and the possible subsequent position transfer and contract replacement, the reverse arbitrage logic of the 04 - 05 contracts can be considered [2]