瑞达期货沪锡产业日报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have led to an increase in domestic tin ore imports, and it is expected to continue to increase in Q1. The tin ore processing fee has slightly rebounded, indicating a sign of relief in the tight supply of tin ore. [3] - At the smelting end, most enterprises' raw material inventories are still low, and most enterprises are in a loss - making situation. With more year - end maintenance, refined tin production continues to be restricted, but there is pressure for production to rebound after the Spring Festival. [3] - In terms of imports, Indonesia's tin exports have increased, the import window is gradually opening, and import pressure is increasing. [3] - On the demand side, the development prospects of the AI field are strong, which will drive a significant increase in solder demand. Recently, tin prices have fallen, the downstream procurement atmosphere has warmed up, inventory has decreased significantly, and the spot premium has rebounded to 2,000 yuan/ton; LME inventory has remained stable, and the spot premium has rebounded. [3] - Technically, the position has remained stable and the price has rebounded, with a strong long - position atmosphere. It is expected that Shanghai tin will be strongly adjusted in the short term, and attention should be paid to the 400,000 - yuan mark. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai tin is 394,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 12,700 yuan/ton; the closing price of the March - April contract of Shanghai tin is - 800 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 190 yuan/ton. [3] - The price of LME 3 - month tin is 49,230 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 585 US dollars/ton; the position of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 31,287 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 920 lots. [3] - The net position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai tin is - 5,489 lots, with a month - on - month increase of 175 lots; the total inventory of LME tin is 7,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 400 tons. [3] - The inventory of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 8,750 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,718 tons; the cancelled warrants of LME tin are 400 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 135 tons. [3] - The warrants of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,516 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 131 tons. [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 tin is 388,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,000 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 tin in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 387,950 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 2,140 yuan/ton. [3] - The basis of the main contract of Shanghai tin is 3,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 14,380 yuan/ton; the LME tin premium (0 - 3) is - 159 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 3 US dollars/ton. [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of tin ore and concentrates is 17,600 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 2,500 tons. [3] - The average price of 40% tin concentrate is 374,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,000 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 40% tin concentrate by Antaike is 14,500 yuan/ton, with no change. [3] - The average price of 60% tin concentrate is 378,700 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3,000 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 60% tin concentrate by Antaike is 10,500 yuan/ton, with no change. [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of refined tin is 14,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,600 tons; the import volume of refined tin is 2,239.1 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 323.25 tons. [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The price of 60A solder bar in Gejiu is 246,370 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 1,480 yuan/ton. [3] - The cumulative output of tinplate (strip) is 1.5287 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 138,700 tons; the export volume of tinplate is 142,900 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 45,000 tons. [3] 3.6 Industry News - The People's Bank of China's Q4 Monetary Policy Implementation Report states that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, conduct regular treasury bond trading operations, and strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies. [3] - US retail sales in December were weaker than in November (which had a 0.6% month - on - month increase) and fell short of Wall Street's expected 0.4% month - on - month increase. The holiday - season consumption was weak and uneven, with 8 out of 13 retail categories declining, especially the spending of low - income groups. [3]