2026年1月通胀数据点评：春节错月下的通胀“回调”

Inflation Overview - In January 2026, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month (December 2025: +0.8%) [2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from December 2025 (previously +1.2%) [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.4% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month (December 2025: -1.9%) [2] Food and Service Prices - Food prices dropped by 0.7% year-on-year in January 2026, reversing a 1.1% increase in December 2025, contributing to a downward pull on CPI by approximately 0.11 percentage points [2] - Service prices increased by only 0.1% year-on-year, significantly down from 0.6% in December 2025, contributing about 0.05 percentage points to CPI [2] Transportation and Energy Impact - Transportation-related service prices fell, with airplane ticket prices down 14.3% year-on-year, impacting CPI by approximately 0.16 percentage points [2] - Energy prices decreased by 5.0% year-on-year, with gasoline prices down 11.4%, contributing an additional 0.06 percentage points to the CPI decline [2] Core Inflation Resilience - Despite the overall CPI decline, core inflation remains resilient, with steady price increases in major consumer goods and services [2] - Durable goods prices rose by 6.6% year-on-year, and gold jewelry prices surged by 77.4%, indicating strong consumer demand [2] PPI Recovery and Industry Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline indicates a recovery in industrial prices, with notable increases in the new energy sector and a 22.7% rise in non-ferrous metal mining prices [3] - The prices of educational and cultural products increased by 21.2% year-on-year, reflecting heightened demand ahead of the Spring Festival [3] Future Outlook - February 2026 is expected to see a rebound in CPI due to the timing of the Spring Festival, with anticipated increases in food and service demand [3] - PPI is projected to continue its recovery trajectory, supported by infrastructure investment and manufacturing upgrades, with a potential narrowing of year-on-year declines [3]