瑞达期货不锈钢产业日报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The raw material supply of ferronickel will face reduction pressure due to the approaching rainy season in the Philippines, declining nickel ore grade, and a significant cut in Indonesia's RKAB plan next year [2] - The production profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, but the rising ferronickel price has increased the cost support, and the increase in production is limited due to more year - end steel mill overhauls [2] - Downstream demand is gradually entering the off - season, but stainless - steel exports still maintain high growth, showing strong export demand resilience. With the approaching Spring Festival, the trading atmosphere is calming down, and the national stainless - steel social inventory has entered a seasonal accumulation phase [2] - Technically, with the reduction of positions and price adjustment, both long and short positions are trading cautiously. It is expected that the stainless - steel futures price will fluctuate and adjust, and attention should be paid to the range of 13,700 - 14,400 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of stainless steel is 14,040 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300 yuan/ton; the price difference between the 03 - 04 contracts is - 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of stainless steel is - 8,958 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,618 lots; the position of the main contract is 32,627 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,794 lots [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity of stainless steel is 54,551 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 421 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 304/2B rolled cut - edge stainless steel in Wuxi is 14,650 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the market price of scrap stainless steel 304 in Wuxi is 9,350 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2] - The basis of stainless steel is 530 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,400 metal tons, with a decrease of 700 metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 23,861.23 tons, with an increase of 11,020.74 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 996,100 tons, with an increase of 100,700 tons [2] - The spot price of SMM1 nickel is 142,600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3,650 yuan/ton; the average price of ferronickel (7 - 10%) in the country is 1,040 yuan/nickel point, with no week - on - week change [2] - The monthly output of Chinese ferrochrome is 757,800 tons, with a decrease of 26,900 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7472 million tons, with a decrease of 14,500 tons; the weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 557,200 tons, with an increase of 8,200 tons [2] - The monthly export volume of stainless steel is 458,500 tons, with a decrease of 29,500 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, with an increase of 53.1326 million square meters [2] - The monthly output of large and medium - sized tractors is 32,100 units; the monthly output of excavators is 9,500 units; the monthly output of small tractors is 10,000 units, with an increase of 3,700 units and 1,000 units respectively [2] 3.6 Industry News - The People's Bank of China's fourth - quarter monetary policy implementation report states that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, conduct regular treasury bond trading operations, and strengthen the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies [2] - US retail sales in December were weaker than in November (which had a 0.6% month - on - month increase) and also fell short of Wall Street's expected 0.4% month - on - month increase [2]