快问快答之2026年大类资产配置机遇与挑战

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts [6]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is in a narrow - range corridor. In the short term, the bond market sentiment may remain warm before the Spring Festival, but attention should be paid to the key resistance level. In the medium term, the bond market may face headwinds, and caution is needed when participating in ultra - long - term bond assets [7]. - In 2026, the local bond market will "front - load" issuance, and funds will be focused on new infrastructure construction, urban renewal and public services, intelligent upgrading of traditional major infrastructure, resolving stock debt risks, and industrial upgrading and national security - related fields [8][9][10][11]. - In 2026, the global attractiveness of Chinese fixed - income assets may increase, but the allocation power of overseas investors may not be the decisive factor affecting the bond yield trend [12]. - In the context of a volatile domestic stock market, investors can focus on four bond market allocation opportunities: the allocation and trading value of interest - rate bonds, the coupon advantage of high - quality credit bonds, the enhanced elasticity opportunity of convertible bonds, and the diversification value of international allocation [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Central Economic Work Conference and Monetary Policy in 2026 - The People's Bank of China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts (the current average legal deposit reserve ratio is 6.3%) and interest rate cuts (stable RMB exchange rate, narrowing bank net interest margin, and maturing long - term deposits) [6] 1.2 Bond Market Pattern in 2026 - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.8% - 1.9%. In the short term, the bond market sentiment may be warm before the Spring Festival, but attention should be paid to the 1.80% resistance level. In the medium term, the bond market may face headwinds, and caution is needed when participating in ultra - long - term bond assets [7] 1.3 Inclination of Local Bond Market Scale in 2026 - Funds will be focused on new infrastructure construction (related to new technologies), urban renewal and public services, intelligent upgrading of traditional infrastructure, resolving stock debt risks (about 6 trillion special refinancing bonds for debt replacement will be basically issued), and industrial upgrading and national security - related fields [8][9][10][11] 1.4 Global Attractiveness of Chinese Fixed - Income Assets in 2026 - Chinese fixed - income assets can effectively diversify risks in a global asset portfolio. With the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, their global attractiveness may increase, but the influence of overseas investors may not be decisive [12] 1.5 Bond Market Allocation Opportunities in 2026 - Interest - rate bonds: Provide a stable foundation for portfolio construction and trading opportunities for investors with certain trading abilities [15] - High - quality credit bonds: Focus on high - quality urban investment bonds in economically strong regions and industrial bonds in strategic industries [16] - Convertible bonds: Select bonds related to policy - supported sectors and pay attention to valuation [17] - International allocation: Chinese interest - rate bonds can attract foreign capital, and some high - quality Chinese dollar bonds can be a useful supplement [18]