瑞达期货棉花（纱）产业日报-20260211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 2025/26 global cotton production and ending inventory estimates are increased, while the consumption estimate is decreased, which is relatively bearish for the cotton market [2]. - In the domestic market, the supply of domestic and imported cotton is sufficient, and the available circulation volume has increased significantly. The inventory of imported cotton at ports is increasing, and downstream textile enterprises are gradually shutting down for holidays, resulting in a significant increase in yarn inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the approaching long - holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,745 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; cotton futures top 20 net position is - 121,791 hands, down 1,663 hands; main contract open interest of cotton is 696,412 hands, down 3,860 hands; cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 10,746 sheets, up 60 sheets; China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 16,029 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan [2]. - Cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,590 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; cotton yarn futures top 20 net position is - 925 hands, up 136 hands; main contract open interest of cotton yarn is 11,468 hands, down 438 hands; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) is 21,520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,418 yuan/ton, unchanged; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) is 13,615 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32 - count) to - port price is 20,987 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32 - count) to - port price is 22,547 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output is 6160 thousand tons, up 540 thousand tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference (CY C32S - CC3128B) is 5,491 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan; industrial inventory of cotton nationwide is 848 thousand tons, down 200 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import volume is 180 thousand tons, up 60 thousand tons; cotton yarn import volume is 170,000 tons, up 20,000 tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit is 2,414 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; commercial inventory of cotton nationwide is 5784.7 thousand tons, up 1101.1 thousand tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days are 25.12 days, down 1.21 days; grey fabric inventory days are 33.76 days, up 1.42 days [2]. - Cloth output is 3.01 billion meters, up 0.2 billion meters; yarn output is 2132 thousand tons, up 93 thousand tons [2]. - Export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 134,124,120,000 US dollars, up 18,187,260,000 US dollars; export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 125,796,030,000 US dollars, up 3,038,700,000 US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call option for cotton is 13.68%, down 0.4%; implied volatility of at - the - money put option for cotton is 13.67%, down 0.41% [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 13.65%, down 0.29%; 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 11.48%, up 0.01% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Department of Agriculture released the February global cotton supply - demand report. The 2025/26 US cotton production forecast is 3.0307 million tons, unchanged from the previous month. US consumption is estimated to remain at 348,400 tons, and the ending inventory is increased by 43,500 tons to 958,000 tons [2]. - ICE cotton futures were generally stable on Tuesday. Due to the reduction of global cotton demand and export volume estimates in the USDA monthly supply - demand report, cotton prices gave back previous gains. The ICE May cotton futures contract rose 0.55 cents, or 0.90%, to settle at 63.78 cents per pound [2]. - The February global cotton supply - demand report shows that the 2025/26 global cotton production forecast is 26.096 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons from the previous period. Global consumption is reduced by 44,000 tons to 25.848 million tons, and global ending inventory is increased by 137,000 tons to 16.353 million tons [2].