瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, it is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, it is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - For cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 23,660 yuan/ton, up 145 yuan; the closing price of the main alumina futures contract is 2,842 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. - The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 145 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of alumina is - 133 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai aluminum contract is 174,403 lots, down 10,383 lots; that of the alumina main contract is 312,145 lots, down 9,395 lots [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 46,325 tons, unchanged; the LME aluminum inventory is 486,975 tons, down 2,000 tons [2]. - The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 3,105 US dollars/ton, down 25 US dollars [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum is - 49,575 lots, up 3,056 lots; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.62, up 0.11 [2]. - The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 22,205 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is - 120 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [2]. - The position of the main cast aluminum alloy contract is 14,349 lots, up 222 lots [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 245,140 tons, up 28,369 tons; the cast aluminum alloy inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 74,425 tons, up 357 tons [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 167,566 tons, up 1,050 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum is 23,650 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in the whole country is 23,260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,555 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 23,250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 1,445 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 400 yuan/ton, down 175 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Material Trade aluminum premium/discount is - 190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 34.34 US dollars/ton, down 8.17 US dollars [2]. - The basis of alumina is - 287 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The pre - baked anode price in the northwest region is 5,810 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The alumina production is 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the alumina demand (electrolytic aluminum part) is 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons [2]. - The alumina supply - demand balance is 28.90 million tons, up 2.32 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed primary aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 18,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; that in Shandong metal scrap is 17,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons; the export volume is 70.80 tons, down 0.73 tons [2]. - The alumina export volume is 21.00 million tons, up 4.00 million tons; the import volume is 22.78 million tons, down 0.46 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 20.49 million tons, up 31.36 million tons [2]. - The primary aluminum import volume is 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export volume is 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 82.32 million tons, up 2.71 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,540.20 million tons, up 4.00 million tons [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum production start - up rate is 98.79%, up 0.48 percentage points [2]. - The aluminum product production is 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.00 million tons, down 3.00 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 66.49 million tons, down 1.91 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.55 million tons, down 0.51 million tons [2]. - The total built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The national real estate climate index is 91.45, down 0.44 [2]. - The aluminum alloy production is 182.50 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The automobile production is 341.15 million vehicles, down 10.75 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 38.46%, down 0.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 31.23%, down 0.15 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 15.93%, down 0.0243 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai aluminum options is 1.91, up 0.067 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fed officials Logan and Harker believe that the Fed's policy stance is close to neutral and may remain unchanged for a long time [2]. - US President Trump may send another aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East if the negotiation with Iran fails [2]. - In 2025, the total national social logistics volume is 368.2 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The logistics volume of industrial robots increases by 28% year - on - year, and that of new energy vehicles increases by 25.1% year - on - year [2]. - An article in Qiushi Journal points out the importance of cultivating and developing future industries [2]. - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract first falls and then rises, with a decrease in position, spot discount, and weakening basis [2]. - The raw material supply is sufficient, the cost support is weakening, the supply is increasing, and the demand is stable with a small increase [2]. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis and the green bars are converging [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in position, spot discount, and weakening basis [2]. - The supply is stable, the demand is warming up, and the industrial inventory is seasonally accumulating [2]. - The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.91, up 0.067, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines below the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract shows a volatile trend, with an increase in position, spot premium, and weakening basis [2]. - The supply is slightly decreasing, the demand is slightly improving, but the supply is still relatively large and the industrial inventory is at a high level [2]. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double lines below the 0 - axis and the red bars are expanding [2].