港股2月策略月报：冲击高峰已过，恒科触底反弹-20260211

Core Viewpoints - The recent decline in the Hang Seng Technology Index is attributed to a severe liquidity shock, but the fundamental outlook for Hong Kong technology remains unchanged, suggesting a potential rebound as the peak of the liquidity shock has passed [2][6][57] - The strategy of "buy the dip" is considered effective, with Hong Kong technology stocks trading at a significant discount compared to A-share technology stocks, nearing historical lows [6][57] - Recommendations include buying on dips and holding through the holiday season, focusing on sectors such as technology (AI and internet), non-bank financials (insurance), and high-dividend stocks [3][4][57] Market Analysis - The Hang Seng Technology sector has experienced significant declines, creating a breeding ground for pessimistic narratives, but the current position offers substantial allocation value [4][6] - Economic indicators show a slowdown in both production and demand, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.3, indicating a contraction [21][22] - The liquidity environment is improving, with domestic and foreign capital continuing to increase their holdings in the Hong Kong market [33][35] Valuation Insights - The relative valuation of the Hong Kong technology sector is at historical lows, with the Hang Seng Technology Index/A-share dual innovation index premium nearing its lowest levels [4][46] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index is 11.95, significantly lower than major global indices, indicating a valuation gap [49][50] Policy Environment - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is tightening IPO quality controls, which is expected to improve market sentiment as previous oversupply of IPOs has been a narrative for weak performance [40][41] - Policies are focused on supporting technological innovation and expanding domestic demand, with significant potential for future initiatives [57][58] Sector-Specific Trends - The AI and internet sectors are transitioning from a "arms race" to a "profit witness" investment paradigm, with a complete AI ecosystem forming in Hong Kong [4][57] - Non-bank financials are characterized by strong beta and high leverage, making them attractive investment options [4][57] - High-dividend stocks are gaining traction, with the Hang Seng High Dividend Yield Index offering a stable dividend yield of approximately 6% [4][57]