国内观察2026年1月通胀数据：春节错位影响CPI，PPI延续向好趋势

Inflation Data Summary - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year increased by 0.2%, down from 0.8% in the previous month, while the month-on-month change remained at 0.2%[2] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 1.4%, an improvement from the previous decline of 1.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%[2] CPI Analysis - The decline in CPI year-on-year was influenced by the misalignment of the Spring Festival, with fresh vegetable prices contributing a 0.27 percentage point decrease to the CPI[2] - Excluding the Spring Festival effect, the CPI month-on-month growth of 0.2% was weaker than the average of 0.6% observed in years when the festival fell in mid to late February[2] - Fresh vegetable prices saw a significant drop, with a month-on-month decrease of 4.8%, leading to a year-on-year decline of 0.7% in food prices[2] PPI Insights - The PPI has shown a continuous month-on-month increase for four consecutive months, with a potential for year-on-year growth by mid-year if the monthly changes remain stable[2] - Key drivers for PPI improvement include rising prices in non-ferrous metals and a positive demand outlook in certain industries, despite some drag from the oil sector[2] Core CPI and Consumer Trends - The core CPI, excluding energy, showed a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, with a month-on-month growth of 0.3%, indicating strong performance in non-energy consumer goods[2] - The average wholesale price of pork increased by 3.73% in January, marking the first monthly rise since July 2025, driven by a decrease in the breeding sow population[2] Risks and Future Outlook - Potential risks include slower-than-expected domestic policy implementation, a sharper decline in real estate investment, and unexpected inflation in the U.S.[3]