玉米淀粉日报-20260211

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The global corn supply pressure has weakened, but the U.S. corn is still in a bottom - oscillating state. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the domestic corn spot is relatively stable in the short term. After the Spring Festival, corn may decline slightly, and the short - term upward space of the 05 corn contract on the futures market is limited [4][6]. - The price of starch mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The 05 starch contract has risen following corn, and the starch spot has stabilized in the short term [7]. - The U.S. corn supply pressure has weakened, and it is expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. The corn spot in North China is strong, and the 03 corn contract may decline [8]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data Futures Market - For corn futures contracts (C2601, C2605, C2509), the closing prices are 2285, 2316, and 2331 respectively, with price increases of 21, 30, and 23, and price increase rates of 0.92%, 1.30%, and 0.99%. The trading volume of C2601 is 507 with an increase rate of 85.04%, C2605 is 790,787 with an increase rate of 103.56%, and C2509 is 31,530 with an increase rate of 188.97%. The open interest of C2601 is 3,527 with an increase rate of 2.29%, C2605 is 1,174,673 with an increase rate of 20.50%, and C2509 is 88,438 with an increase rate of 21.04% [2]. - For starch futures contracts (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices are 2620, 2637, and 2658 respectively, with price increases of 20, 29, and 18, and price increase rates of 0.76%, 1.10%, and 0.68%. The trading volume of CS2601 is 8 with a decrease rate of 42.86%, CS2605 is 59,825 with an increase rate of 34.94%, and CS2509 is 1,189 with a decrease rate of 55.13%. The open interest of CS2601 is 80 with an increase rate of 0.00%, CS2605 is 148,017 with an increase rate of 9.78%, and CS2509 is 8,298 with a decrease rate of 0.11% [2]. Spot and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions: Qinggang is 2135 yuan, Songyuan Jiajie is 2190 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2362 yuan, Shouguang is 2346 yuan, Jinzhou Port is 2330 yuan, Nantong Port is 2410 yuan, and Guangdong Port is 2450 yuan. The price in Shouguang has increased by 10 yuan, while others are stable. The basis in different regions ranges from - 196 to 119 [2]. - Starch spot prices in different regions: Longfeng is 2730 yuan, COFCO is 2700 yuan, Yihai (Heilongjiang) is 2700 yuan, Yufeng is 2830 yuan, Jinyu is 2820 yuan, Zhucheng Xingmao is 2920 yuan, and Hengren Industry and Trade is 2780 yuan. All prices are stable. The basis in different regions ranges from 63 to 283 [2]. Spread - Corn inter - period spreads: C01 - C05 is - 31 with a decrease of 9, C05 - C09 is - 15 with an increase of 7, C09 - C01 is 46 with an increase of 2 [2]. - Starch inter - period spreads: CS01 - CS05 is - 17 with a decrease of 9, CS05 - CS09 is - 21 with an increase of 11, CS09 - CS01 is 38 with a decrease of 2 [2]. - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 is 327 with a decrease of 5, CS01 - C01 is 335 with a decrease of 1, CS05 - C05 is 321 with a decrease of 1 [2]. 2. Market Judgment Corn - U.S. corn prices are oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, with the import price from Brazil in July being 2201 yuan. The northern port's flat - warehouse price is stable at around 2330 yuan, and the northeast and north China corn spot prices are stable. The price difference between north China and northeast corn has widened. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, and corn is still cost - effective. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the downstream feed enterprises' inventory has increased. The 05 contract has increased in positions and broken through the previous high, but the short - term upward space is limited, and there may be a slight decline after the Spring Festival [4][6]. Starch - The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and the Shandong corn spot price is strong. The starch price in Shandong is around 2780 yuan, and the northeast starch spot price is stable. This week, the corn starch inventory has increased to 102.5 million tons, an increase of 3.0 million tons from last week, with a monthly decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.9%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is starting to weaken but is still higher than last year. The 05 starch contract has risen following corn, and the starch spot has stabilized in the short term [7]. 3. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The 03 U.S. corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. All long positions in the 07 and 05 corn contracts should be liquidated [9]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage for the 3 - 7 corn contracts, and go long on the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts when the price is low [9]. 4. Corn Options - Option strategy: Short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations [10]. 5. Related Attachments - The attachments include six figures showing the northern port's corn flat - warehouse price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread over different time periods [14][15][19]