现实格局偏弱，钢矿低位震荡：钢材&铁矿石日报-20260211

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar oscillated, recording a daily decline of 0.07%, with increasing volume and decreasing positions. Currently, although rebar supply has shrunk, demand has also weakened. The fundamental contradictions of rebar in the off - season are accumulating, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected to maintain an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated, recording a daily increase of 0.06%, with decreasing volume and increasing positions. Currently, the demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, and there is still supply pressure under the situation of high production and high inventory. The fundamentals are weak, and prices continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, recording a daily decline of 0.07%, with decreasing volume and positions. Currently, due to weather factors, overseas ore supply has shrunk in the short term, while demand is weakly stable. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and ore prices will still be under pressure under the high - inventory pattern. Attention should be paid to steel price performance [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In January, the construction of a unified national market continued to drive up prices in some industries. The CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI excluding food and energy prices increased by 0.8% year - on - year. Affected by factors such as the construction of a unified national market, increased demand in some industries, and the transmission of international commodity prices, the PPI increased by 0.4% month - on - month and decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [7]. - In January, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China increased by 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year respectively. The overall operation of the automobile industry was stable, the passenger car market declined, the commercial vehicle market continued to improve, the new energy vehicle market operated steadily, and automobile exports continued to grow. The main factors leading to the market decline were the adjustment of the new energy vehicle purchase tax policy, the annual alternation of car purchase subsidy policies in many places, and the pre - release of some consumer demand in 2025 [8]. - Swedish state - owned iron ore producer LKAB's operation was stable in the fourth quarter of 2025, and iron ore shipments reached a new high for the year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, LKAB's iron ore production was 6.5 million tons, a 5.8% decrease from the previous quarter and a 14% increase from the same period last year. The annual cumulative production in 2025 was 25.9 million tons, a 14.1% increase from the previous year. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the iron ore shipment volume was 7 million tons (pellets accounted for 85%), a 12.9% increase from the previous quarter and a 4.5% increase from the same period last year. The annual cumulative shipment volume in 2025 was 25.8 million tons, a 17.8% increase from the previous year [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,190, 3,150, and 3,304 respectively [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The spot prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,240, 3,140, and 3,279 respectively [10]. - Tangshan billet: The spot price was 2,900 [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The spot price was 2,160 [10]. - Main variety spreads: The coil - rebar spread was 50, and the rebar - scrap spread was 1,030 [10]. - Iron ore: The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 758, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 767. The previous - day's sea freight from Australia was 8.06, from Brazil was 22.89, the SGX swap (current month) was 100.64, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 100.20 [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,054, with a decline of 0.07%. The highest price was 3,068, the lowest price was 3,043, the trading volume was 557,284, the volume difference was 28,957, the open interest was 2,063,660, and the position difference was - 1,877 [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,228, with an increase of 0.06%. The highest price was 3,239, the lowest price was 3,216, the trading volume was 255,255, the volume difference was - 81,368, the open interest was 1,552,374, and the position difference was 9,529 [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 762.5, with a decline of 0.07%. The highest price was 767.5, the lowest price was 758.5, the trading volume was 133,786, the volume difference was - 9,498, the open interest was 506,957, and the position difference was - 6,983 [14]. 4. Related Charts - Steel inventory: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills + social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory (weekly change, total inventory of steel mills + social inventory) [16][17][22]. - Iron ore inventory: Included charts of 45 - port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal inventory), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventory [23][27][29]. - Steel mill production: Included charts of the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 94 independent electric furnace steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profitability of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills [31][33][35]. 5. Market Outlook - Rebar: Both supply and demand are seasonally weak, and inventory continues to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 81,500 tons compared with the previous week. Although supply has shrunk, the inventory level is significantly higher than the same period last lunar year, and the pressure relief is limited. Demand is also in a weak seasonal pattern. The weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions have both shrunk significantly and are at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. Considering that the downstream industry has not improved, the weak demand pattern is difficult to change, which continues to drag down steel prices. The relative positive factor is the post - holiday policy expectation. It is expected to maintain an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [39]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern has not changed much, and inventory has increased again. The production of plate steel mills is stable. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased slightly by 50 tons compared with the previous week, remaining at a relatively high level, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure remains. At the same time, the demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened. The weekly apparent demand decreased by 58,700 tons compared with the previous week, and high - frequency daily transactions continued to operate at a low level. The relative positive factor is that the production of downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level, which supports the demand for hot - rolled coil, but attention should be paid to the accumulation of contradictions in cold - rolled products themselves. In addition, the external demand for exports is average, and there are concerns about the demand for hot - rolled coil. The fundamentals are weak, and prices continue to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to demand performance [39]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and inventory continues to rise. Steel mill production is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased slightly. However, considering that the profitability of steel mills has not improved and the contradictions in the steel market are accumulating, the demand improvement is limited, and the positive effect is not strong. At the same time, the arrival volume at domestic ports has declined again, and the shipments of miners have decreased significantly due to hurricane disturbances. Overseas ore supply has shrunk in the short term, and domestic ore supply has shrunk seasonally. Under the high - inventory pattern, the relief of ore supply pressure is limited. The fundamentals of iron ore have not improved, and ore prices will still be under pressure. Attention should be paid to steel price performance [40].