银河期货液化气日报-20260211

Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: February 11, 2026 [1] - Researcher: Zhao Ruochen [4] - Researcher's futures practice certificate number: F03151390 [4] - Researcher's investment consulting practice certificate number: Z0023496 [4] Group 2: Daily Data Domestic Futures - PG2602 price on February 11, 2026: 4262, up 11 from the previous day [2] - Main contract position on February 11, 2026: 25613, down 3707 from the previous day [2] - Warehouse receipt quantity on February 11, 2026: 6762, unchanged from the previous day [2] Domestic Spot - South China refinery gas price on February 11, 2026: 4750, unchanged from the previous day [2] - South China imported gas price on February 11, 2026: 4865, unchanged from the previous day [2] - East China refinery gas price on February 11, 2026: 4475, unchanged from the previous day [2] - East China imported gas price on February 11, 2026: 5026, unchanged from the previous day [2] - Shandong refinery gas price on February 11, 2026: 4430, down 60 from the previous day [2] - Shandong etherified C4 price on February 11, 2026: 4450, unchanged from the previous day [2] Basis - Basis on February 11, 2026: 486.0, down 11 from the previous day [2] External Market Prices - BRENT price on February 11, 2026: 69.4, up 0.6 from the previous day [2] - СЬ СЗ МІ price on February 11, 2026: 535.9, unchanged from the previous day [2] - FEI C3 M1 price on February 11, 2026: 593.0, unchanged from the previous day [2] - MB C3 M1 price on February 11, 2026: 0.6, down 0.012 from the previous day [2] - MOPJ M1 price on February 11, 2026: 602.8, unchanged from the previous day [2] - NAP M1 price on February 11, 2026: 563.1, unchanged from the previous day [2] Disk Profits - Import profit FEI on February 11, 2026: -450.2, up 11.8 from the previous day [2] - PDH FEI on February 11, 2026: -867.4, up 5.9 from the previous day [2] Ratios - FEI/BRENT ratio on February 11, 2026: 8.5, down 0.07 from the previous day [2] - FEI/MOPJ ratio on February 11, 2026: -9.7, unchanged from the previous day [2] Group 3: Crude Oil and Natural Gas Market - The US government issued a general license allowing oilfield service companies to operate in Venezuela. The Trump administration is relaxing sanctions and promoting the reconstruction of Venezuela's crude oil infrastructure [3] - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will meet with Donald Trump at the White House on Wednesday. Israel's concerns about a possible diplomatic agreement between Iran and the US are increasing [3] - Indian Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited have purchased Venezuelan Merey crude oil, which is expected to arrive in April [3] - The Indian Coast Guard seized three oil tankers suspected of being involved in oil smuggling, the country's first tough measure against the so - called "dark fleet" [3] Group 4: Spot Situation Shandong Region - Shandong civil gas valuation on February 11, 2026: 4430 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day. After a small increase in refinery prices yesterday, sales were average, supply gradually recovered. With the approaching Spring Festival, refinery inventories were low but the willingness to support the market was weak. Today, the mainstream prices were mostly adjusted downwards [5] - Shandong etherified C4 market was stable at high levels and did not rise at low levels. The overall trading atmosphere was average. Although the low - supply situation in the region had not been substantially alleviated, high prices suppressed the profits of deep - processing plants, causing downstream resistance. With the approaching Spring Festival, the game sentiment among manufacturers was weak. It is expected that the mainstream of the Shandong etherified C4 market will remain stable tomorrow, with some prices falling [5] East China Region - The mainstream transaction price of civil gas in East China on February 11, 2026: 4475 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Today, the East China market was generally stable, with the mainstream transaction price ranging from 4150 - 4800 yuan/ton. Market transportation capacity was gradually decreasing. Refineries focused on stabilizing inventories before the festival, with a cautious attitude and limited willingness to adjust prices. It is expected that the East China market will be stable in the short term, and the local transaction center may move slightly downward [5] South China Region - The average transaction price of domestic gas in South China on February 11, 2026: 4750 yuan/ton, stable compared with yesterday. The average price of imported gas in South China: 4865 yuan/ton, stable compared with yesterday. Today, the South China market was generally stable. With the increasing festival atmosphere, downstream customers replenished stocks as needed. Affected by traffic restrictions in Guangdong, the logistics transportation efficiency further decreased. Currently, the market was mainly dominated by the festival sentiment, and there was insufficient motivation for large - scale market adjustment. It is expected that the mainstream trend will remain horizontal, and individual units may adjust flexibly according to their own situations [6] North China Region - The benchmark price of civil gas in North China on February 11, 2026: 4288 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. In North China, prices rose and fell today. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was fair, and the production and sales pressure was not large [6] Group 5: Market Judgment - Currently, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is traded around geopolitical factors. The repeated emotions amplify the market fluctuations. Be vigilant against the market's "whip effect" [7] - Fundamentally, the international LPG spot supply is generally tight, and the winter demand is strong, providing support for the overseas supply - demand fundamentals. However, the domestic fundamentals are gradually becoming looser. Although the arrival volume is low, the abundant refinery off - gas and low chemical demand cause certain resistance above the market [7] - With the Iran negotiation not yet finalized, tail risks still exist. The domestic LPG market is expected to be volatile in the short term and face pressure in the medium - to - long term [7]