“三高”环境下的应对和选择

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The global market is currently in a "high valuation, high consensus, high volatility" state, with significant fluctuations in assets such as precious metals, Bitcoin, overseas long - term bonds, the US dollar index, and some technology stocks. This is due to the global liquidity - easing environment and the rapid spread of market consensus in the AI era, which can lead to crowded trading. [2] - In trading, it is advisable to consider both odds and win - rate. Diversify asset allocation based on risk factor budgets and asset negative correlations, and strengthen the tracking of market sentiment, capital flows, and positions. [2] - Most equities and commodities are in a relatively favorable position as the fundamental theme of the manufacturing cycle recovery driven by fiscal policies and AI capital expenditures continues, and themes like order reconstruction continue to play out. It is recommended to buy on dips. [2] - The Spring Festival calendar effect is more positive for the stock market, and the bond market has a coupon advantage during the long holiday. Key points of concern include AI models, the Iran situation, and Spring Festival consumption data. [2] According to Related Catalogs "High - Three" Environment Causes and Responses - Causes: Global monetary easing and a weak US dollar bring abundant liquidity; long - term themes such as global order reconstruction and the AI revolution are rapidly evolving; new funds, strong narratives, and strong momentum lead to over - crowded trading. [3][12][14] - Responses: - Consider both win - rate and odds in trading. High - win - rate assets include precious metals, non - ferrous metals, AI technology hardware, and power equipment, and it is recommended to buy on dips. High - odds assets include overseas software sectors, crude oil, black commodities, and domestic and foreign real estate, consumption, and financial sectors. [24][35] - Diversify asset allocation based on risk factor budgets and asset negative correlations to reduce portfolio volatility. Monitor changes in asset correlations, such as the co - movement of risk and safe - haven assets, the correlation between AI technology stocks and other sectors, and the rotation from technology to defensive sectors. [40] - Strengthen the tracking of market sentiment, capital flows, and positions. Trading indicators like trading volume, volatility, and futures positions have short - term timing implications, especially at extreme values. The fear - greed index can also measure short - term market sentiment. [53][59] Market Condition Assessment - Domestic: Last week, external demand was strong, prices generally declined, domestic demand remained resilient, and the production side was divided. Port throughput was high, travel was popular, and Spring Festival travel bookings increased year - on - year. Real estate transactions were weak, and production indicators showed mixed performance. [4][68] - Overseas: The US labor market continued to cool. In January, ADP employment was only 22,000, Challenger corporate layoffs were 108,000 (a 118% year - on - year increase), and JOLTS job openings dropped to 6.542 million. The US non - farm payrolls and CPI announcements were postponed. [4][69] - Domestic Policies: - Monetary Policy: Emphasize structural and precise drip - irrigation and coordination between fiscal and financial policies. The central bank will implement incremental policies for structural tools, and conduct open - market operations to adjust liquidity. [70] - Fiscal Policy: Focus on expanding domestic demand, benefiting agriculture, and preventing risks. Issue bonds to support projects and rural development, and allocate funds to stimulate consumption. [71] - Real Estate Policy: Continue to strengthen policies on both the supply and demand sides. Adjust housing provident fund loan policies and optimize land supply. [71] This Week's Allocation Recommendations - Large - scale Assets: High valuation and high crowding have led to high global market volatility, but the fundamental theme of the manufacturing cycle recovery continues. Most equities and commodities are favorable, and it is recommended to buy on dips. [62] - Domestic Bond Market: Before the Spring Festival, the bond market is generally warm, but this year's late Spring Festival and high institutional positions may limit pre - holiday buying. After the festival, the bond market is expected to fluctuate narrowly. There may be structural opportunities in ultra - long bonds, secondary - tier perpetual bonds, and medium - short - term varieties. [62] - Domestic Stock Market: Pre - holiday trading may be light, but the A - share calendar effect in February is positive, and small - cap growth stocks are dominant. It is recommended to hold stocks over the holiday. Focus on AI applications, semiconductor equipment, lithium batteries, and other sectors. [63] - US Bonds: The US economic situation is divided. The 10 - year US bond yield has fallen below 4.2%. In the short term, the yield may fluctuate, and the yield curve is likely to steepen in the long term. [64] - US Stocks: The performance of US stocks has been polarized. It is recommended to balance the allocation of upstream and downstream stocks. Some funds are rotating to cyclical and defensive sectors. [66] - Commodities: Gold can be bought in batches on dips. Copper may shift from a slight surplus to a slight shortage in 2026. Oil can be bought on dips and traded with volatility. Black commodities have high odds. [67] Follow - up Concerns - Domestic: The National Bureau of Statistics' report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities and China's January CPI annual rate. [84] - Overseas: EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report, US January unemployment rate, US January seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls, and other economic data from the US and the eurozone. [84]