印尼26年镍矿配额落地，镍价冲高

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown marginal improvement. It is expected that the overall supply and demand in February will still be loose, and the overall visible inventory will remain at a high level, which will put some pressure on prices. At the same time, the Indonesian government's reduction of the 2026 nickel ore quota and the proposed revision of the domestic nickel ore pricing method have significantly adjusted the market's expectations of nickel cost and balance, providing some support for nickel prices. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory Latest Dynamics and Reasons On February 11, 2026, affected by the news that Indonesia approved a nickel ore quota of about 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, the Shanghai nickel price once soared by more than 4.4% to 139,940 tons. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) released the 2026 work plan and cost budget (RKAB), and the Director - General of Minerals and Coal of the ESDM, Tri Winarno, revealed that the approved nickel ore production quota is between 2.6 billion and 2.7 billion tons. Considering that 2026 is still a period of concentrated release of new capacity of high - pressure acid leaching (HPAL) in Indonesia, to maintain the reasonable operating rate of existing and under - construction projects, it is expected that the theoretical demand for nickel ore in Indonesia in 2026 will be about 15% higher than the currently approved quota of 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, forming a significant tightening expectation in the market. [2] Fundamental Situation - Supply: The domestic electrolytic nickel production increased again in January. At the same time, the production of nickel matte and nickel ice in Indonesia in January remained at a high level overall, and the pressure on the supply side still exists. [3] - Demand: It is still in the traditional consumption off - season. The stainless steel production in January increased slightly month - on - month due to profit repair, but it is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival holiday. The terminal demand remains relatively cautious, and the overall fundamentals remain in surplus. [3] - Inventory: According to Wind data, the LME inventory increased by 678 tons to 285,750 tons yesterday, and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 318 tons to 52,039 tons. The global overall visible inventory is still at a high level. [3] Summary and Strategy The current fundamentals of nickel have not improved. It is expected that the supply and demand in February will be loose, and the visible inventory will remain high, suppressing prices. The Indonesian policy has strongly supported the nickel price, but the high visible inventory may limit the upward space to some extent. It is recommended to hold positions lightly and cautiously before the festival, and continue to pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices in the medium term. Also, continue to pay attention to the progress of relevant Indonesian policies. [4]