哪些服务业:空间较大
GUOTAI HAITONG SECURITIES·2026-02-11 11:10

Service Industry Overview - The service industry in China is defined as the tertiary sector, which includes various sectors excluding primary and secondary industries, covering 15 categories from wholesale and retail to auxiliary activities in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishing[8] - The current service industry statistics in China show that the quarterly value added, retail sales, and price calculations are still lagging behind industrial statistics, indicating issues such as data updates and coverage[9] Development Potential - China's GDP per capita is approaching the threshold of high-income countries, yet the value added and employment share of the service industry remain at the lower end compared to similar income countries, suggesting significant room for improvement[12] - The service industry value added is projected to reach 56.7% by 2024, indicating a potential increase of approximately 7.7 percentage points compared to the average of 64.5% in high-income countries[20] Sector Analysis - Key sectors with substantial growth potential include retail, catering, publishing, healthcare, internet services, leasing and business services, railway transportation, and banking[39] - The productivity growth in the service sector has been higher than that in the industrial sector since 2016, suggesting that service sector productivity improvements can mitigate structural economic slowdowns[20] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The expansion of the service industry is driven by both supply-side productivity changes and demand-side consumption structure upgrades, with life services showing strong demand elasticity[25] - The average annual growth rate of labor compensation in the service industry from 2018 to 2023 was 2.6%, significantly lower than the 8.1% growth in the manufacturing sector, indicating a disparity in wage growth across sectors[28] Risks and Challenges - There are risks associated with incomplete or lagging service industry statistics, discrepancies in international comparisons, and potential underperformance in income growth and service efficiency improvements[41]