农产品日报：苹果日报-20260211

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The overall trend of the Apple May contract is expected to be strong due to low cold storage inventory, high-quality issues, increased downstream stocking enthusiasm, and relatively high warehouse receipt costs [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index is 107.22, with a decrease of 0.30 compared to the next working day. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi-commodity paper bags 70, Qixia first and second-grade paper bags 80, etc., remain stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.97, with a decrease of 0.03 [2] - Futures Prices: For AP01, the price is 8153, up 33 from the previous night; AP05 is 9601, up 101; AP10 is 8258, up 44. The spreads between different contracts also show corresponding changes [2] - Basis: The basis of Qixia first and second-grade 80 against different contracts shows a downward trend [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - Market News - As of February 4, 2026, the apple cold storage inventory in the main producing areas of China is 619.81 million tons, a decrease of 34.25 million tons from the previous week, and the de-stocking speed is accelerating compared to the previous week, higher than the same period last year [7] - In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples is about 15.65 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 28.63% and a year-on-year increase of 26.76%. The import volume is 0.31 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 21.31% and a year-on-year increase of 20.02%. The cumulative import volume for the whole year of 2025 is 11.68 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 19.72% [7] - The mainstream price of apples in the producing areas is stable. The cold storage packaging in Shandong is nearing completion, while there are still many cold storage facilities in the northwest region continuing to package, with a relatively large shipment volume in recent days. The market arrival volume has increased significantly, and the sales are acceptable, with the mainstream price remaining stable [7] - The mainstream transaction price of semi-commodity apple cold storage in Luochuan, Shaanxi is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and the market is stable, with some customers still making purchases but with reduced transactions [7] - Trading Logic: Low cold storage inventory, poor apple quality, increased pre - Spring Festival stocking enthusiasm, and high warehouse receipt costs lead to an expected strong trend for the Apple May contract [5] - Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, go long on the May contract on dips and short the October contract on rallies [8] - For arbitrage, go long on the May contract and short the October contract [8] - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [8] Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Qixia first and second - grade paper bags 80 and Luochuan semi - commodity paper bags 70, the basis of AP contracts, the spreads between different AP contracts, the arrival volume of apples in certain markets, the prices of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold storage apple inventory, and the national cold storage apple outbound volume [10][11][12]