1月通胀点评：春节错月影响一季度，基期轮换影响全年

CPI Analysis - January CPI increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.8% year-on-year[3] - The year-on-year CPI growth in January was lower than the consensus expectation and decreased by 0.6 percentage points compared to December 2025[5] - Food prices in January decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, contributing to a 0.11 percentage point decline in CPI[6] - Service prices rose by 0.1% year-on-year, but the upward impact on CPI decreased by 0.20 percentage points compared to the previous month[7] PPI Analysis - January PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month but decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, with production materials down by 1.3% and living materials down by 1.7%[22] - The year-on-year decline in PPI has narrowed for two consecutive months, influenced by policies and seasonal demand[24] - The average impact of the base period rotation on PPI year-on-year indices is estimated at 0.08 percentage points, which is relatively small[24] Market Influences - The Spring Festival timing has significantly impacted the CPI and PPI data for the first quarter, with expectations of a low January, high February, and a significant drop in March[8] - Input factors, particularly energy prices, have shown a year-on-year decline of 5.0%, affecting CPI by approximately 0.34 percentage points[7] - The adjustment of the base period and weightings in the CPI calculation may favor a slight increase in CPI growth for 2026, with service price weights rising and consumer goods weights declining[8]