2026年1月物价数据点评：PPI修复继续：输入性影响增加

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI decreased year-on-year to 0.2%, primarily affected by the misalignment of the Spring Festival[7] - The CPI's month-on-month increase was 0.2%, which is lower than the historical average of 0.58% for comparable Januarys[8] - The core CPI rose by 0.3% month-on-month, slightly above the historical average of 0.24% for January[10] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the year-on-year decline narrowing to -1.4%[12] - Input factors, particularly rising international metal prices, significantly boosted PPI performance, with copper and silver prices increasing by 8.4% and 38.2% respectively[12] - The geopolitical risks have led to a rise in international oil prices, further supporting PPI increases in related sectors[12] Group 3: Market Trends and Projections - The overall CPI and PPI are expected to rise throughout 2026, supported by tailwind factors[22] - To maintain a trend of price recovery, additional policy measures, such as subsidies, are necessary to enhance domestic demand[22] - The shift from goods-oriented consumption to service-oriented consumption is reflected in the increased weight of services in the CPI calculation[7]