有色金属行业：镍价大涨，后市可期

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [5] Core Insights - The nickel market is experiencing a significant structural differentiation in supply and demand, with supply elasticity narrowing and demand showing clear divergence [6][7] - Indonesia, as the largest nickel supplier, has implemented policies to reduce mining quotas and increase resource taxes, which is expected to raise nickel prices [8] - The overall nickel market is characterized by tight supply and differentiated demand, providing strong support for price trends before the holiday season [7] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - Over the past 12 months, the industry has shown a relative return of 88.96% and an absolute return of 109.79% [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global nickel supply is in a tight balance due to reduced elasticity, with Indonesia's export quota approval delays and seasonal weather impacts in the Philippines affecting mining operations [7] - Demand from the new energy sector is strong, driven by high operating rates in precursor enterprises, while traditional stainless steel demand is cautious due to seasonal consumption and profit pressures [7] Policy Impact - Indonesia's recent policies include a significant reduction in annual mining quotas from 379 million tons in 2025 to 260-270 million tons in 2026, a decrease of over 30% [8] - The introduction of a floating royalty rate linked to LME nickel prices has increased mining costs for companies [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a continued positive outlook for the nickel sector, highlighting companies such as Zhongwei New Materials, Greenmei, and Weiming Environmental Protection as key investment opportunities [9]