晨会聚焦：宏观张德礼：中国出口份额还有多大提升空间？-20260211

Core Insights - The report discusses the potential for China's export share to increase, highlighting that despite recent challenges, there is room for growth in the global market [3][5] - It emphasizes that the decline in China's export share from its peak in 2021 is primarily due to factors such as export prices and exchange rates, rather than a decrease in competitiveness [3][4] Summary by Sections Export Share Trends - China's export share of global amounts reached a historical high of 14.9% in 2021 but has been below this level from 2022 to 2025 [3] - The analysis indicates that the decline in export share is not reflective of a loss in competitiveness, as the quantity of exports continues to rise [3][4] Factors Influencing Export Prices - Potential trade friction risks may limit the ability to lower prices for certain Chinese export products, while optimized export tax rebate policies could enhance export prices [4] - The report anticipates that the year-on-year decline in China's export prices will narrow, with a possibility of turning positive in certain phases due to a low base effect [4] Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - Since 2022, there has been a divergence between China's trade surplus and the actual effective exchange rate of the RMB [4] - Increased use of RMB in international trade financing and payments is expected to enhance the attractiveness of RMB assets, potentially leading to RMB appreciation [4] Quantitative Assessment of Export Share - A quantitative assessment suggests that China's export share of global amounts is expected to begin a continuous recovery in 2026, stabilizing around 17% by 2030 [5] - This assessment indicates that there is still over a 2 percentage point potential increase in China's export share compared to current levels, suggesting resilience in future export growth [5]