棉花、棉纱日报-20260211

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong, with an upward trend in the long - term. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The short - term trend of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be range - bound [5][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Information - Futures Disk: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 70, CY01 remained unchanged, CY05 decreased by 45, and CY09 decreased by 25. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 decreased by 13,325, and the open interest decreased by 270 [2] - Spot Price: CCIndex3128B decreased by 45 to 15,967 yuan/ton, Cot A was 72.80 cents/pound, and the price of some other products remained stable or changed slightly [2] - Price Difference: The cotton inter - period spreads such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, and 9 - 1 months had different values and changes, and the same for the yarn inter - period spreads. The cross - variety spreads and internal - external spreads also had corresponding values and changes [2] 3.2 Market News and Views - Cotton Market News - On February 11, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton was 0.1402 yuan/ton·km, remaining flat. It is expected to be relatively stable in the short term [4] - As of January 31, 2026, the CAI's assessment of India's 2025/26 cotton balance sheet was the same as last month. Compared with the previous year, the beginning inventory increased by 360,000 tons, production increased by 80,000 tons, imports increased by 150,000 tons, domestic demand decreased by 150,000 tons, exports decreased by 50,000 tons, and the ending inventory increased by 800,000 tons [4] - According to the latest February production and sales forecast of USDA, the total supply increased by 90,000 tons to 2.609 million tons, the total demand decreased by 44,000 tons to 2.5847 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 140,000 tons to 1.635 million tons [4] - Trading Logic: There are news that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang will decrease by 2660000 mu to 36.21 million mu in 2026, a decrease of 7%. The implementation of the reduction plan is expected to be strong. At the same time, several large textile projects are expected to be launched in Xinjiang, which is beneficial to cotton consumption [5] - Trading Strategy - Unilateral: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton will be range - bound. It is advisable to build long positions on dips [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Wait and see [6] - Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market has almost stopped, only Xinjiang maintains a certain level of sales. The cotton yarn price is generally stable, with some spinning mills raising prices, and some planning to raise prices after the Spring Festival. Spinning mills will start to have a concentrated holiday tomorrow [6][8] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the delivery and shipment in the all - cotton grey fabric spot market have gradually decreased, and the trading is sluggish. Most factories have already had a holiday. Weaving factories will start work from the eighth to the tenth day of the first lunar month, but full resumption of production will be after the fifteenth day of the first lunar month [8] 3.3 Options - Option Contract Information: On January 19, 2026, for CF605C14600.CZC, the closing price was 334.00, with a decrease of 16.9%, and the implied volatility was 13.3%. Similar information is provided for other option contracts [10] - Volatility: The 60 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 9.2812, with a slight increase. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were different [10] - Option Strategy: Wait and see [12]