中国工程机械行业展望

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the Chinese construction machinery industry has been adjusted from "stable weakening" to "stable" [3] Core Viewpoints - The construction machinery industry has shown a clear recovery trend since 2025, driven by continuous improvement in domestic demand and stable export performance. The overall sales volume of construction machinery is expected to continue to improve in 2026, with industry revenue and profits maintaining a growth trend [3][7] - The core products such as excavators and loaders have accelerated their recovery, while the demand for different types of cranes has shown some divergence due to uneven recovery in downstream demand [7][9] - The industry is expected to benefit from multiple drivers of domestic demand, including traditional infrastructure, urban renewal, and mining development, which will support market growth [7][18] Summary by Sections Industry Fundamentals - The construction machinery industry has experienced a significant recovery since 2025, with total sales volume reaching 206.72 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.47%. The sales of excavators have rebounded after three consecutive years of decline, with a notable increase in exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" [9][10] - The domestic market demand is expected to improve in 2024, supported by policy measures, while exports are projected to maintain steady growth. The overall sales volume for major products in 2024 was 185.45 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.47% [9][10] Financial Performance - The revenue of sample enterprises in the construction machinery sector is expected to show significant recovery in 2025, with operating cash flow levels restored to previous high levels. The debt scale of these enterprises has been well controlled [41][43] - In 2024, the total operating revenue of the construction machinery industry increased by 0.79% to 816.5 billion yuan, with sample enterprises achieving revenue of 300.73 billion yuan, accounting for 36.83% of the industry total [42][43] Market Outlook - The construction machinery market is expected to enter a stable growth phase in 2026, with small excavators benefiting from special bond funding for rural infrastructure projects, while large excavators will be supported by major infrastructure projects [41][43] - The demand for construction machinery is anticipated to be driven by the replacement of aging equipment and the implementation of policies promoting equipment upgrades, which will release significant market potential [28][24]