——2026年1月价格数据点评：涨价开始向下游传导

CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year growth rate dropped to +0.2%, down from +0.8% in the previous month, and below the market expectation of +0.4%[2] - The food prices decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, compared to an increase of 1.1% in the previous month, contributing to a decline of 0.32 percentage points in CPI[4] - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate fell to +0.8%, down from +1.2% in the previous month, influenced by the Spring Festival timing[5] PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month growth rate increased to +0.4% in January 2026, up from +0.2% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase[6] - The year-on-year PPI decline narrowed to -1.4%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The prices in the non-ferrous metal mining sector rose by 5.7% month-on-month, driven by international price increases[6] Market Outlook - The upward trend in CPI is expected to continue, supported by rising raw material prices affecting durable consumer goods[3] - The central government's focus on regulating pig production capacity is anticipated to lead to a moderate improvement in pork prices in the second half of the year, supporting CPI readings[3] - The PPI is projected to turn positive year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, influenced by global commodity price increases and domestic policy adjustments[11]