化工日报-20260211

Report Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polypropylene, Plastic, PTA, PVC, and Soda Ash: Bullish trend, with relatively clear long - term trends and current appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Pure Benzene, PX, Ethylene Glycol, Short - fiber, Bottle Chip, Urea, Caustic Soda, and Glass: Short - term long/short trends in a relatively balanced state, with poor current market operability, suggesting waiting and seeing [1] - Styrene: Bearish trend, with relatively clear short - term trends and current appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Methanol: Slightly bullish, with a driving force for price increase, but poor market operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows different trends in various sectors. Some products face supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as production capacity changes, seasonal demand, and geopolitical situations. Investment opportunities and risks coexist in different products [2][3][5] Summary by Category Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures closed up with limited market news, and the overall trading remained stable [2] - PE market may have a slightly weakening trend in the short term due to increased supply and weakened demand [2] - Polypropylene is in a weak position due to reduced demand and increased supply expectations [2] Polyester - PX and PTA prices rebounded, with PX having more long - term opportunities in the first half of the year, but currently facing weak demand and falling processing margins. PTA is experiencing inventory accumulation, and a 250 - million - ton device shutdown will ease the pressure [3] - Ethylene glycol supply has shrunk, and prices have rebounded. It may improve in the second quarter, but is still under long - term pressure [3] - Short - fiber has a good supply - demand pattern, but downstream orders are weak, and prices follow raw materials [3] - Bottle chips' processing margins have recovered, but long - term production capacity pressure remains. Consider positive spread trading opportunities after the Spring Festival [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene prices have risen, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve after the Spring Festival [5] - Styrene fundamentals may weaken in the short term due to increased supply and decreased demand [5] Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol fundamentals are still weak, but short - term prices are affected by geopolitical situations. It may gradually reduce inventory after the Spring Festival [6] - Urea prices are stable, and the market is expected to strengthen after the Spring Festival [6] Chlor - alkali Industry - PVC is expected to rise in price due to cost support and export demand. Consider buying at low prices [7] - Caustic soda is expected to trade around cost due to cost support and downstream negative feedback [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash is facing supply - demand surplus pressure in the long term. Consider short - selling on rebounds and holding long - glass and short - soda - ash positions [8] - Glass may experience seasonal inventory accumulation, but the supply - demand pattern may improve. Consider buying at low - valued structural positions [8]