印尼26年镍矿配额落地镍价冲高

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current fundamentals of nickel have not shown marginal improvement. It is expected that the overall supply and demand in February will still tend to be loose, and the overall visible inventory will remain at a high level, putting pressure on prices. However, the Indonesian government's downward revision of the 2026 nickel ore quota and the proposed revision of the domestic nickel ore pricing method have significantly adjusted the market's expectations of nickel cost and balance, providing some support for nickel prices. [2][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Latest Dynamics and Reasons - On February 11, 2026, affected by the news that Indonesia approved a nickel ore quota of about 2.6 - 2.7 billion tons, the Shanghai nickel futures price once soared by over 4.4% to 139,940 tons. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) announced the 2026 work plan and cost budget (RKAB), with the approved nickel ore production quota between 2.6 and 2.7 billion tons. Considering that 2026 is a period of concentrated release of new capacity in Indonesia's hydrometallurgical process (HPAL), the theoretical demand for domestic nickel ore in Indonesia in 2026 is expected to be about 15% higher than the currently approved quota, creating a significant tightening expectation in the market. [2] Fundamental Situation - On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic nickel production rebounded again in January, and the overall production of nickel matte and nickel ice in Indonesia remained high in January, so the supply - side pressure still exists. On the demand side, it is still in the traditional consumption off - season. The stainless - steel production in January increased slightly month - on - month due to profit repair, but is expected to decline significantly in February due to the Spring Festival holiday. The terminal demand remains relatively cautious, and the overall fundamentals remain in a state of surplus. In terms of inventory, according to Wind data, the LME inventory increased by 678 tons to 285,750 tons, and the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts increased by 318 tons to 52,039 tons, with the global overall visible inventory still at a high level. [3] Summary and Strategy - Currently, the Indonesian policies strongly support nickel prices, but the high visible inventory may limit the upward space to some extent. It is recommended to hold positions cautiously and lightly before the holiday, continue to pay attention to opportunities for buying at low prices in the medium term, and continuously follow the progress of relevant Indonesian policies. [4]