【冠通期货研究报告】PVC日报：震荡运行-20260211

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The PVC market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Although the current supply and inventory pressures are large, and the demand is weak, there are still policy and maintenance expectations after the Spring Festival. Traders are advised to operate cautiously before the Spring Festival [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.26%, and continued to increase slightly, being at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 3.33 percentage points, and the downstream's willingness to actively stock up is low. After the price increase, the domestic export orders decreased month - on - month, but the previous rush to export reduced the sales pressure of enterprises. The social inventory continued to increase and is still relatively high, with large inventory pressure. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the production of some enterprises is expected to decline, but the current output decline is limited. There are no new maintenance devices expected this week, and the PVC operating rate will not change much. The futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. February is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream enters the holiday mode, the spot trading is light, and the social inventory continues to increase [1] Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2605 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,945 yuan/ton, the highest price was 5,006 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,990 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.58%. The position volume decreased by 10,196 lots to 1,111,283 lots [2] Basis - On February 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region rose to 4,775 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2605 contract futures was 4,990 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 215 yuan/ton, weakening by 9 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Affected by devices such as Shandong Hengtong and Henan Yuhang, the PVC operating rate increased by 0.33 percentage points to 79.26%, continuing to increase slightly and being at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. New production capacities of 500,000 tons/year of Wanhua Chemical, 400,000 tons/year of Tianjin Bohua, 200,000 tons/year of Qingdao Gulf, and 300,000 tons/year of Gansu Yaowang were put into production in the second half of 2025. The 300,000 - ton/year Jiaxing Jiahua had a trial production in December 2025 [4] - Demand: The real estate is still in the adjustment stage. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. The new housing construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new residential construction area was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The housing completion area was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the residential completion area was 428.3 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. As of the week of February 8, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 18.54% month - on - month, being at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of February 5, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.71% month - on - month to 1.227 million tons, a 63.28% increase compared with the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and was still relatively high [6]