【冠通期货研究报告】焦煤日报：震荡偏弱-20260211

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal industry is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Core View of the Report - Coking coal opened low and moved high, with a late - session plunge. Before the Spring Festival, coking coal supply enters a significant contraction period, and Mongolian coal customs clearance will also be restricted during the holiday. Some large coal mines continue to ship inventory during the holiday. The downstream is in the final stage of winter stockpiling. The inventory will continue to decline but is approaching the end. The downstream steel trading volume is poor. Before the Spring Festival, coking coal mines tighten, and the downstream also tightens seasonally. After the Spring Festival, with the resumption of production of steel mills, there is an opportunity for the market to brew, and it will oscillate weakly before the festival [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Coking coal opened low and moved high, with a late - session plunge. Before the Spring Festival, coking coal supply enters a significant contraction period, and Mongolian coal customs clearance will be restricted during the holiday. According to Mysteel statistics, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.67%, a decrease of 2.46% compared to the previous period. The daily output of raw coal reaches 192.53 tons. As the holiday approaches, there are more mine safety inspections and shutdowns. The downstream winter stockpiling is coming to an end, and the coking coal inventory of mines is decreasing, with a weekly decrease of 2.53 tons. Last week, coking enterprises increased their inventory by 67.6 tons, and steel mills increased their inventory by 9.84 tons. There are still two weeks of stockpiling time before the Spring Festival, and the inventory will continue to decline, but it is approaching the end. The downstream steel trading volume is poor, and the downstream hot metal production increased by 0.26% compared to the previous period, with a weekly average daily output of 228.58 tons. Before the Spring Festival, coking coal mines tighten, and the downstream also tightens seasonally. After the Spring Festival, with the resumption of production of steel mills, there is an opportunity for the market to brew, and it will oscillate weakly before the festival [1] Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price is quoted at 1,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking raw coal is 1,018 yuan/ton, an increase of 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The closing price of the main contract futures is 1,123.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 146.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.5 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From January 30 to February 6, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 86.67%, a decrease of 2.46 percentage points compared to the previous period; the daily output of refined coking coal was 75.45 tons, a decrease of 1.62 tons compared to the previous period [4] Demand Data - From January 30 to February 6, the daily output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 63.14 tons, an increase of 0.3 tons compared to the previous period; the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 47.24 tons, an increase of 0.23 tons compared to the previous period. The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons compared to the previous period [6]