【冠通期货研究报告】沪铜日报：关注今晚非农数据-20260211

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and trended higher, showing a strong intraday oscillation. The production in January was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. The estimated output of electrolytic copper in China in February will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.04%, but increase by 8.06% year - on - year. The regenerative copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier this year due to high copper prices and low market liquidity. The demand decreased as downstream industries entered the holiday mode. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is relatively high, and the non - farm payrolls data for January in the US tonight may affect market sentiment. The copper price is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the spot trading is light before the holiday, with the external market during the holiday expected to influence post - holiday copper price sentiment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and trended higher, with a strong intraday oscillation. The production in January was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and the estimated output in February will decrease by 3.58 million tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.04%, but increase by 8.06% year - on - year. The regenerative copper enterprises entered the holiday mode earlier due to high copper prices and low market liquidity. The demand decreased as downstream industries entered the holiday mode. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in March is relatively high, and the non - farm payrolls data for January in the US tonight may affect market sentiment. The copper price is greatly affected by the macro - environment, and the spot trading is light before the holiday, with the external market during the holiday expected to influence post - holiday copper price sentiment [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The Shanghai copper market opened lower and trended higher, with a strong intraday oscillation. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is - 40 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 60 yuan/ton. On February 10, 2026, the LME official price is 13093 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium is - 91 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Supply - side - As of February 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 51.23 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 5.21 cents/pound [8] 3.4 Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 17.89 million tons, an increase of 12958 tons from the previous period. As of February 9, the copper inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 9.11 million tons, an increase of 0.17 million tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory is 18.91 million tons, an increase of 4800 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory is 59.15 million short tons, an increase of 1248 short tons from the previous period [12]