工业硅期货日报-20260211

Report Summary - Report Type: Daily Report - Report Date: February 10, 2026 - Researcher: Gu Xiaochun (Qualification No.: F0269198; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0000164) - Report Subject: Industrial Silicon Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term due to the dual impact of inventory pressure and demand expectation adjustment, and will probably remain range - bound [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - On February 10, 2026, the main contract SI2605 of industrial silicon futures showed a volatile downward trend, opening at 8430 yuan/ton, reaching a maximum of 8470 yuan/ton and a minimum of 8350 yuan/ton, and closing at 8375 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. - The holding volume of the main contract was 303387 lots, and the total holding volume of the variety reached 418432 lots, an increase of 12176 lots from the previous trading day, indicating an increase in market participation [2]. 3.2. Spot Market - On February 10, 2026, the leading spot price of industrial silicon in China was 9106 yuan/ton, and the futures price was at a discount to the spot price, reflecting the market's cautious expectation of the forward price [2]. 3.3. Main Influencing Factors - Industry inventory pressure: The current industrial silicon inventory is in the accumulation stage, and market concerns about warehouse receipts are high. The inventory pressure suppresses the futures price [2]. - Downstream demand expectation: The "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Roadmap (2025 - 2026)" released by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association on February 5 predicts that China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2026 will be between 180GW and 240GW, which is lower than that in 2025 but will return to an upward trend after 2027, indicating short - term pressure on photovoltaic industry demand but a long - term good outlook [2]. 3.4. Short - term Outlook - Key factors to focus on: post - holiday polysilicon spot trading volume, changes in warehouse receipts, actual start - up rate and new installed capacity in the photovoltaic industry, production capacity release and cost changes of industrial silicon production enterprises, and power supply and price changes in relevant regions [3][4].